This article is about some of the factors a disciplined investor considers when deciding whether or not to sell or short-sell stocks and other investments. Short-selling is a practice where an investor borrows shares of a stock or other investments, with the anticipation that prices will fall, and buys them later at hopefully lower prices. If the prices rise instead then the investor loses money. I’m not fond of short-selling myself, but at least wanted to share it since the factors that influence when to sell stocks or other investments are often some of the same factors an investor might consider when short-selling.

If you follow my stock market activities then you know that I have done quite a bit of selling lately and am now completely out of the stock market. From a seasonal standpoint, November is typically the time to buy (and not sell) stocks since the highest gains typically occur between November and April so you might question why I decided to sell out of this market. Well, there were two primary reasons: 1) I bought into the mid September-to-mid October market slump where the stock market lost nearly 10% and since then the stock market has gained over 11% over a period of about 3 weeks or so which is about a year and a half gain (on average) over a period of weeks. 2) My year end “stretch” goal for my investment account was 12% and I gained 16% as of Friday which is over a two year gain on average. When the overall market bottomed in mid-October, and I kept buying into it, my investment account was at a 6% loss, so it has risen 22% since then. Rather than continue taking risk I sold what I had to realize this gain and await an overall market pullback or other compelling investment opportunities before putting my cash to work.

Below are factors that I frequently consider when evaluating whether or not to sell shares of stocks or other investments that I’m holding at the time:

(1) Technical charts and indicators approaching extreme levels. For example, if you take a look at the slow stochastics chart below, at the bottom of the chart, for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) you can see that the lines are above 80 which indicates, from a statistical perspective, that the stock is overbought and is due for for a pullback. In addition, in the top chart, the prices are approaching the upper Bollinger Band at ~ 2067, another statistical indicator, which is perhaps even more concerning due to the significant widening of the upper and lower bands associated with the extreme price declines and the rapid recovery between 19 September and 7 November. I typically look at a variety of charts and indicators and generally take a “weighted average” across those that appear to best reflect the “personality” of the stocks or other investments that I am tracking to aid in “buy” and “sell” decision making. Tracking the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is a good index to track, because about 60% of stocks rise when the SPX rises and about 80% of stocks decline when the SPX falls. So the SPX is worth paying attention to.

(2) Stocks or other investments rising significantly above their means. Stocks tend to be mean reverting over time so prices significantly above or below the mean(s) tend to reverse and revert back to the means at some point.

(3) Stock prices approaching or exceeding their 1 year price targets. Analysts generally provide 12 month price targets for the stocks that they cover and they revise these over time. As such, it is likely that prices approaching or exceeding their 1 year price targets will have limited upside unless significant upside revisions are made by the analysts that cover the stock at some point in the future.

(4) Stocks or other investments which previously declined significantly, but have since nearly reverted back to their means or have recovered nicely from their previous declines.

(5) Stocks or other investments which previously gapped down significantly on a decline begin “filling in the gap”.

(6) Prices approaching resistance zones represented by moving averages or trend analyses.

(7) The percentage gain to date. I always try to lock-in a good gain when I see one even if the other indicators I look at are favorable towards the stocks or other investments that I am holding. This allows me to have cash available to take advantage of any other investment opportunities which might become highly favorable, in the future, in terms of the indicators that I generally look at to evaluate stocks. I typically consider about 7% per year to be an average annual return in the stock market although far above average returns have been observed in the past few years. It is likely, however, that annual gains will begin reverting back to their means at some point in the future.

(8) The risk-reward indicators that I generally look at become unfavorable in nature such as some of the factors indicated above or some of the fundamental indicators that I frequently look at.

(9) Other investment opportunities start becoming much more favorable than some of the ones I’m holding, but I am fully invested and have no cash on hand at the time to take advantage of these opportunities. When this happens I look to sell some of the stocks that I’m holding to free up cash so that I might capitalize on these other potentially more compelling opportunities.

(10) Reaching or exceeding my ultimate or year end target goals for my overall investment account. Anytime that you begin approaching your ultimate or year end target goals this should prompt you to reduce your stock market exposure to manage your risk.

Each of the above are indications that it might make sense to sell some shares; especially when two or more of these factors are present. Selling shares when such opportunities arise allows you to effectively manage risk and have cash available to take advantage of future compelling investment opportunities.

Being a disciplined investor involves tracking multiple investment alternatives and taking actions to capitalize on those which become highly favorable investment opportunities over time and exiting those which become less favorable. By periodically rotating out of investments which become less favorable and into investment opportunities which become more favorable in nature you will realize consistent gains over time. You won’t make winning investments all of the time, but the point is to use strategies and techniques which allow you to make winning investments for much of the time

This article informs some of the factors a disciplined investor considers when deciding whether or not to sell or short-sell stocks and other investments. Part of being a successful investor, and realizing consistent gains over time, involves recognizing indicators of when to reduce your stock market exposure, and risk overall, by selling shares of stocks or other investments.

Please contact me if you need any assistance with any of your financial planning, management, and/or investing needs as this is one of the areas that I actively perform life coaching and training in. Also feel free to click on “Financial Planning, Management, and Investing Related Posts” on the sidebar to the right or below (depending on which device you are using)  for helpful tips on how to become a solid investor.

Other articles that I’ve written related to financial planning, management, and investing include:

(1) Risk: How Much Should You Take When Investing Your Money?
(2) Using Technical Indicators and Charts to Guide Stock Market Activities and Using Price Averaging to Manage Risk
(3) Using Bollinger Bands, Stochastics, and Other Indicators to Guide Stock Market Activities
(4) Using Moving Averages and Price Averaging to Realize Consistent Gains in the Stock Market

These articles provide helpful tips on how to become a solid investor so read through some of these if you think they might be helpful to you. In addition, in case some of you would like to follow along, here is where I regularly post about my stock market activities. So feel free to visit this page if you’d like to follow what I’m doing in the stock market at any given time.

For those that did not know, I generally perform life coaching and training services in two primary areas: 1) Personal and Professional Improvement, Development, and Growth, and 2) Financial Planning, Management, and Investing. As such, I generally alternate the articles that I write via my blogs between these two topic areas. This particular article is associated with the second area that I life coach in. So if you don’t have much interest in financial planning, management, and investing, rest assured that the next article that I write will be in the area that you might have greater interest in; the personal and professional improvement, development, and growth area. You can also follow me on Twitter if you like at: Joseph M Brennan Jr @ BrighterDaysLC

 

Joseph M. Brennan Jr.
CEO/Life Coach – Brighter Days Life Coaching
“Your Brighter Days Life Coach for Life”

 

 

 

 

 

 

Make a Bad Day Better
Make a Good Day Better
Create a Brighter Life