It’s good idea to assess various stock market indicators from time to time to determine whether there might be strong “buy” or “sell” indicators overall. In the below paragraph I present the overall stock market indicators I tend to track and their associated ratings (STRONG BUY, BUY, NEUTRAL, SELL, STRONG SELL). Based on the rough average of these indicators I presently rate the overall stock market as: SELL. Based on this rating I would generally do nothing – however, because I had pretty solid gains on several of my stocks I decided to do some selling today just to reduce my risk.

As a low-risk investor, and the tendencies of overall stock markets to go higher over time, I usually wait for a STRONG SELL rating before selling shares to reduce my overall stock market risk these days (sellers are wrong 93% of the time over rolling 5-year periods – I talk more about this later in this post). If you are a low-risk investor, you might consider doing the same unless you have solid gains and want to reduce your risk a bit like I did today. Higher risk investors will likely be better served by staying the course and riding out the ups and downs of the overall stock market. If you aren’t sure what your investment risk category is, you can find it here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/

Below are my current ratings across the overall stock market indicators I regularly track and evaluate:

a. STRONG SELL (39.95 with recent peak of 40.03 in Jan 2026 – 2nd highest level ever behind 44.19 in Dec 1999 just before Dot Com Bubble): Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio.

b. STRONG SELL (221% – 2nd highest level on record only behind the previous quarter’s reading of 230.3%): Buffet Indicator.

c. SELL (1300 days from 12 October 2022 low until 3 April 2026): Average Length of Bull Market is about 1011 days.

d. NEUTRAL (99% from 12 October 2022 closing low of 3577.03 until 15 April 2026 closing high of $7,022.95): Average % Gain of Bull Market is about 114%.

e. WEAK SELL: Volatility index (VIX) approaching lows (SELL) or highs (BUY) on a historical basis.

f. SELL: Technical Indicators for S&P 500 approaching lows (BUY) or highs (SELL) – especially when looking at weekly charts over several years.

g. WEAK SELL: Technical Indicators for VIX approaching lows (SELL) or highs (BUY) on a historical basis.

h. STRONG SELL (S&P 500 is at all-time closing high and has about a 35% gain over 1 year): Gains substantially above long-term stock market average. The S&P 500 index gains about 10% annually (on average including dividends) – so if you experience substantial gains above and beyond that then it might make sense to sell at least part of the gains.

i. SELL (4.74% which is slightly higher than present TNX of 4.31%).

j. SELL (4TH Quarter GDP at 0.7% which is probably lower than what would be expected and likely to reverse in coming quarters but there are substantial headwinds with the rise in oil prices and inflation and reduced likelihood of Fed interest rate decreases (and potential rate increases): GDP approaching certain thresholds: the overall stock market generally experiences substantial gains when GDP is either negative or at 2.1%+, while substantial losses tend to be experienced when GDP is between 0% and 1% (losses are also generally experienced when GDP is between 1.1% and 2% – but the losses are much smaller). Keep in mind when considering this that the stock market tends to be “forward-looking” in nature and typically reflects what investors believe will happen in the next 6+ months.

k. NEUTRAL OR STRONG SELL DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU COUNT FROM (Presently 6 years if including COVID-19 which was only a 2-month recession from February-April 2020 – Presently 16.75 Years from June 2009 if COVID-19 is not included): Average number of years between recessions is about 6.5 years and the average stock market decline during recessions is about 30%.

l. SELL (presently about $82 but rated SELL since item j is SELL): Brent oil prices. Physical prices are actually much higher than the quoted oil futures prices. Some economists estimate that sustained Brent oil prices over several months of about: 1) $125 or higher would cause a recession in Europe – Asia seems even more affected by these Oil prices so their threshold is probably lower, and 2) $150 or higher would cause a recession in the United States. These thresholds might have to be adjusted over time but for now the above seems to be reasonable thresholds to track and be mindful of. Keep in mind that per item j. above (GDP), that even an economic slowdown can adversely affect the overall stock market – not just recessions. So, even oil prices sustained below the above levels can be detrimental and warrant caution.

You can read more about these indicators via the following posts: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/a-structured-market-based-buying-strategy-for-investing-well-with-minimal-effort/ (Overall Stock Market Based Buy Strategy – scroll down to item 4) and https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/a-structured-market-based-selling-strategy-for-investing-well-with-minimal-effort/ (Overall Stock Market Based Sell Strategy – scroll down to item 2).

Now, although each of the above indicators has limitations, they can signal whether the overall stock market might be approaching extreme highs indicating a coming potential, substantial decline – especially when these highs are signaled by several indicators. Many indicators, however, are not very precise, and tend to reflect high/extreme sell readings frequently. So, these indicators tend to run hot.

The overall stock market tends to go up over the longer-term because demand outpaces supply for much of the time, causing share price increases (you can read more about this here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/why-the-overall-stock-market-goes-up-over-the-longer-term/). Due to this tendency, the overall stock market naturally becomes more expensive over time – so it can be difficult to determine the point at which it becomes so expensive that substantial declines occur.

The above are just a few of the technical and overall market indicators you can use. There are several others available including those discussed here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-more-wall-street-firms-230100571.html

Keep in mind you don’t have to be very precise when buying into the overall stock market – a gain is experienced 93% of the time over rolling 5-year periods and 100% of the time over rolling 10-year periods no matter when you buy. In sharp contrast, being a seller or waiting for drops to happen can be challenging in that you will be “wrong” 93% of the time over rolling 5-year periods and 100% of the time over rolling 10-year periods. So, you have to be very precise as a seller which is one reason higher risk investors should probably never (or rarely) sell. You can read more about this here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/ (just scroll down to item 1 under “KEY HISTORICAL STOCK MARKET TRENDS”).

The best investing strategy to use will change over time depending on your investment risk category, and on those somewhat rare occasions when several overall stock market indicators signal extreme lows. So, it’s very important, at least on a periodic basis, to maintain awareness of which investment risk category you fall into as well as remaining cognizant of when the overall stock market is approaching extreme lows. Many investors fail to maintain this awareness or make these adjustments resulting in losing much of their life savings (e.g., remaining a high-risk investor when lower risk is appropriate) or not growing their life savings as much as needed (e.g., remaining a low-risk investor when higher risk is appropriate). If you aren’t sure what your investment risk category is, you can find it here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/

Here are a few historical trends which might be helpful to keep in mind: A 3-5% drop in the S&P 500 index generally happens about three times a year, a 10% drop generally happens about once every 1.5 years, and a 20%+ drop generally happens about twice every five years. So, the deeper the drop you wait for before buying, the higher the likelihood you’ll miss a significant rebound. You can read more about this here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/ (just scroll down to item 2 under “KEY HISTORICAL STOCK MARKET TRENDS”).

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/.

Also, you can follow all of my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities

I wish you much investing success for 2026 (and beyond!).

selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #success #finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket

For those who wanted to follow along, this will be the third execution of my refined, structured Market-Based Buying Strategy for 2026 for investing well with minimal effort: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/a-structured-market-based-buying-strategy-for-investing-well-with-minimal-effort/.

This post is for all investors: High Risk (HR), Medium Risk (MR), and Low Risk (LR) investors. If you aren’t sure what your investment risk category is, you can find it here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/

2. Take a look at overall market indicators for the S&P 500 index to determine whether or not it is approaching extreme highs indicating a coming potential, substantial decline.

These indicators might include one or more of the following:

a. Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio: Current Stock Market Index Price divided by average inflation-adjusted 10-year Earnings Per Share for the same Market Index. Here’s one source that talks about this indicator: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cape-ratio.asp. The CAPE ratio approaching historical highs can be indicative of a potential, stock market decline although it has had a poor track record of timing the market overall. In recent months, the CAPE for the S&P 500 index has been approaching its highs historically speaking (e.g., as of this writing I believe a CAPE of 22 or higher might be a good number to use as an initial indicator for paying close attention and perhaps becoming more cautious overall).

b. Buffet Indicator: Present Total U.S. Stock Market Value divided by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Typically, the Wilshire 5000 index is frequently used to represent the Total US Stock Market Value. Here’s one source that talks about this indicator: https://currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php. The Buffet Indicator approaching historical highs can be indicative of a potential, stock market decline although it has had a poor track record of timing the market overall. In recent months, the Buffet Indicator has been approaching its highs historically speaking (e.g., as of this writing I believe a Buffet Indicator approaching two standard deviations above the long-term trend line – roughly 185 or higher as of this writing – might be a good number to use as an initial indicator for paying close attention and perhaps becoming more cautious overall). Warren Buffet offered a simple guide: “If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200% — as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 — you are playing with fire.”

c. Average Length of Bull Market: According to Bespoke, since 1929 the average bull market has lasted 1011 days: https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2024/07/Bespoke-Report-071224-Pros-Cons-78hy76.pdf. Bull markets in later stages (approaching or above the average) are likely to decline at some point although the timing can be questionable. The present bull market is still in its early stages and is far short of the average length.

d. Average % Gain of Bull Market: According to Bespoke, since 1929 the average bull market has gained 114%: https://media.bespokepremium.com/uploads/2024/07/Bespoke-Report-071224-Pros-Cons-78hy76.pdf. Bull markets approaching or above the average % gain, are likely to decline at some point although the timing can be questionable. The present bull market is far short of reaching this average gain.

e. Volatility index (VIX) approaching lows on a historical basis. Frequently the VIX at low levels rises sharply at some point and the S&P 500 index falls substantially. In recent months, the VIX has oscillated between lows and highs – but has not been at extreme levels.

f. Technical Indicators for S&P 500 approaching highs – especially when looking at weekly charts over several years (e.g., MFI approaching or above 80, RSI approaching or above 70, S&P 500 approaching or above upper Bollinger Band, MACD at extreme levels, etc.). Technical Indicators approaching highs can signal a coming potential, substantial stock market decline. In recent months, the above technical indicators for the S&P 500 have approached its highs historically speaking.

g. Technical Indicators for VIX approaching lows – especially when looking at weekly charts over several years (e.g., MFI approaching or below 20, RSI approaching or below 30, VIX approaching or below lower Bollinger Band, MACD at extreme levels, etc.). Technical Indicators for the VIX approaching lows can signal a coming potential, substantial stock market decline. In recent months, the aforementioned technical indicators for the VIX have not been at or approaching extreme levels – low or high historically speaking.

h. Gains substantially above long-term stock market average. The S&P 500 index gains about 10% annually (on average including dividends) – so if you experience substantial gains above and beyond that then it might make sense to sell at least part of the gains. This is particularly true for lower-risk investors – higher-risk investors probably would not be as concerned with this. As a low-risk investor, I frequently sell good gains as I experience them. However, above average gains can continue from one year to the next – and frequently they do – so the timing can be questionable. In the past two years, the S&P 500 Index has far exceeded the average (24% gain in 2023 and 23% gain in 2024). At some point, annual gains are likely to revert back to the long-term average.

i. See how the EIRY calculated in step 1 for the S&P 500 index compares to the 10-year treasury bond rate (TNX). Anytime the TNX approaches or exceeds the EIRY for the S&P 500 index, this indicates investing in the “risk-free” TNX is the more compelling investment and can signal a potential substantial decline in the S&P 500 index at some point although the timing can be questionable. For example, on 24 January 2025, the EIRY of the S&P 500 was 4.78% while the TNX was 4.63% – indicating the S&P 500 would only be a slightly better investment than the TNX meaning it is probably not worth the risk. If the EIRY for the S&P 500 was 50%+ higher than the “risk-free” TNX, then it would be a much more compelling investment and more worth the risk. 19 JUNE 2025 UPDATE: I will probably not be putting as much weight on how the EIRY compares to the TNX for some time because of the bond market losing its “low-risk safe haven” status due to the presence of the multiple risks discussed here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/storm-clouds-on-the-horizon-the-bond-markets-and-the-low-risk-safe-haven-facade-part-2-2025/.

j. GDP approaching certain thresholds. As indicated in this post https://www.aol.com/finance/heres-where-wall-street-sees-211510635.html, the overall stock market generally experiences substantial gains when GDP is either negative or at 2.1%+, while substantial losses tend to be experienced when GDP is between 0% and 1% (losses are also generally experienced when GDP is between 1.1% and 2% – but the losses are much smaller). Keep in mind when considering this that the stock market tends to be “forward-looking” in nature and typically reflects what investors believe will happen in the next 6+ months.

k. Average Number of Years Between Recessions and Average Stock Market Declines During Recessions: According to Kiplinger, since the end of World War II, the U.S. has suffered 12 recessions – or an average of one every 6.5 years (https://www.kiplinger.com/slideshow/investing/t038-s001-recessions-10-facts-you-must-know/index.html). This means we can reasonably expect a recession every 6.5 years or so and the average stock market decline for a recession is about 30% according to Kathmere Capital Management(https://www.kathmere.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/August-2022-Recessions-and-the-Stock-Market.pdf#:~:text=The%20table%20shows%20that%20on%20average%20the,prior%20to%20the%20start%20of%20a%20recession). So, if there hasn’t been a recession in many years, it might be a good time to become a bit cautious and starting to prepare for one.

Now, although each of the above indicators has limitations, they can signal whether the overall stock market might be approaching extreme highs indicating a coming potential, substantial decline – especially when these highs are signaled by several indicators. Many indicators, however, are not very precise, and tend to reflect highs much more frequently than lows over time. The overall stock market tends to go up over the longer-term because demand outpaces supply for much of the time, causing share price increases (you can read more about this here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/why-the-overall-stock-market-goes-up-over-the-longer-term/). Due to this tendency, the overall stock market naturally becomes more expensive over time – so it can be difficult to determine the point at which it becomes so expensive that substantial declines occur.

The above are just a few of the technical and overall market indicators you can use. There are several others available including those discussed here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-more-wall-street-firms-230100571.html

Usually I wait until the S&P 500 index falls about 10% before doing the 3rd execution (as of today this index has dropped nearly 9% from its all-time high) – however, two of the eight major stock market indexes I track have dropped beyond 10%, and one other is right at the 10% drop. So, you can wait for a drop in the S&P 500 index or start buying if the major stock market indexes remain at their current levels or drop a little more. It’s up to you. We’ve already received a pretty good discount to date so for those who are ready to potentially start executing this strategy:

HR Investors might consider buying such that another 33.3% or more (depending on investment style and preference) of their overall investment account is invested into one of the major market index Exchange Traded Funds(ETFs) (or you can split that across multiple major market indexes if you prefer) – If you did not invest the last time when I sent out the 1st and 2nd Execution notifications then the total would be 100% (33.3% for the 1st execution plus 33.3% for this 2nd execution plus 33.3% for this 3rd execution).

MR Investors might consider buying such that another 15% or more (depending on investment style and preference) of their overall investment account is invested into one of the major market index Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) (or you can split that across multiple major market indexes if you prefer) – If you did not invest the last time when I sent out the 2nd Execution notification then the total would be 30% (15% for the 2nd execution plus 15% for this 3rd execution).

LR Investors might consider buying such that 5% or more (depending on investment style and preference) of their overall investment account is invested into one of the major market index Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) (or you can split that across multiple major market indexes if you prefer).

The longer and the deeper the drop you wait for, the greater the likelihood you will miss the rebound. So, some of you might want to prepare to go ahead and buy. It’s your financial future so do what you think is best for you.

I currently track eight major market index ETFs: S&P 500 index (e.g., SPY ETF), an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 Index (e.g., RSP ETF), the Total Stock Market index (e.g., VTI ETF), the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares (VTV – value stocks of large companies), the Nasdaq (e.g., QQQ ETF), a Mid-Cap Stock Index ETF (e.g., IJH ETF), Russell 2000 index (e.g., IWM ETF), and the EFA ETF (or something similar). The first seven are major U.S. based indexes, while the last one tracks international stocks of developed countries outside the U.S. and Canada.

Of the above major market index ETFs, the EFA ETF international index fund (or IEFA which is the one I like since the fees are lower) is the most attractive one right now by far. However, if you prefer U.S. based indexes the most attractive of those right now appear to be: IWM and QQQ based on my analysis. So, you can pick one or more of these ETFs or split your investment across these if that is your preference. None of these indexes/ETFs are without risk, however.

For example, the EFA (or IEFA which is the one I like since the fees are lower) can be impacted by U.S. trade policy and has potential currency exchange risk as well since this index is not U.S. based – it is also the one most affected by oil prices as they rise; especially if they remain high. In terms of the potential currency exchange risk, a falling dollar tends to increase gains while a rising dollar tends to reduce gains. However, the currency exchange impact is not typically very substantial unless the dollar experiences big moves when it comes to the EFA ETF. So, if you are very concerned about these kinds of issues, then you might want to choose a different index to buy into or split your investment across different indexes.

In a slowing economy, the IWM (or SPSM which is the one I like since it only includes the profitable small businesses contained in the Russell 2000 index) tends to outperform in lower inflation economic environments, lower interest rate economic environments, and when the economy is performing well overall. This index also tends to drop the fastest and deepest in a slowing economy but rebounds sharply in the midst of the economic slowdown in anticipation of economic recovery.

The QQQ ETF suffers from higher valuation and concentration risks where a select few large cap stocks tend to dominate – some investors/economists are greatly concerned about the valuation and concentration risks while others believe they are appropriate since that is where much of the earnings growth presently is. You can read about the risks associated with the major stock market indexes here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/ (just scroll down to “UNIQUE DIFFERENCES IN STOCK MARKET INDEXES“).

Feel free to start buying in one or more of the aforementioned major market index ETFs if the major market indexes remain close to where they closed today or drop a little more below that level. You can use the specific major market indexes above or use a different one that suits you. Just ensure the fees are at least as low as the ones identified above when buying. Some people like to split their investments across multiple indexes to help manage the risk so feel free to do the same.

Another reason to potentially buy into the stock market in the near term is the Volatility Index (VIX) closed above 31 today which is higher than normal. In addition, the near-term technical indicators are reflecting extreme levels for the VIX. These indicate a sharp reversal could happen over the near term for the VIX – and when the VIX drops, the overall stock markets tend to rise.

Keep in mind you don’t have to be very precise when buying into the overall stock market – a gain is experienced 93% of the time over rolling 5-year periods and 100% of the time over rolling 10-year periods no matter when you buy. In sharp contrast, being a seller or waiting for drops to happen can be challenging in that you will be “wrong” 93% of the time over rolling 5-year periods and 100% of the time over rolling 10-year periods. So, you have to be very precise as a seller which is one reason higher risk investors should probably never (or rarely) sell. You can read more about this here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/ (just scroll down to item 1 under “KEY HISTORICAL STOCK MARKET TRENDS”).

Here are a few historical trends which might be helpful to keep in mind: A 3-5% drop in the S&P 500 index generally happens about three times a year, a 10% drop generally happens about once every 1.5 years, and a 20%+ drop generally happens about twice every five years. So, the deeper the drop you wait for before buying, the higher the likelihood you’ll miss a significant rebound. You can read more about this here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/ (just scroll down to item 2 under “KEY HISTORICAL STOCK MARKET TRENDS”).

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/.

Also, you can follow all of my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities

I wish you much investing success for 2026 (and beyond!).

selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #success #finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket

For those who wanted to follow along, this will be the second execution of my refined, structured Market-Based Buying Strategy for 2026 for investing well with minimal effort: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/a-structured-market-based-buying-strategy-for-investing-well-with-minimal-effort/.

If you are a High Risk (HR) or Medium Risk (MR) investor, this post is for you – Low Risk (LR) investors can wait and do nothing if you want. If you aren’t sure what your investment risk category is, you can find it here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/

The S&P 500 index has dropped nearly 7% from its all-time high – so if it remains at its present level or drops a little more:

HR Investors might consider buying such that another 33.3% or more (depending on investment style and preference) of their overall investment account is invested into one of the major market index Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) (or you can split that across multiple major market indexes if you prefer) – If you did not invest the last time when I sent out the 1st Execution notification then the total would be a minimum of 67% (33.3% for the 1st execution plus 33.3% for this 2nd execution).

MR Investors might consider buying such that 15% or more (depending on investment style and preference) of their overall investment account is invested into one of the major market index Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) (or you can split that across multiple major market indexes if you prefer).

The longer and the deeper the drop you wait for, the greater the likelihood you will miss the rebound. So, HR and MR investors might want to prepare to go ahead and buy – LR investors might be more inclined to take their chances by waiting for a deeper drop. It’s your financial future so do what you think is best for you.

I currently track eight major market index ETFs: S&P 500 index (e.g., SPY ETF), an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 Index (e.g., RSP ETF), the Total Stock Market index (e.g., VTI ETF), the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares (VTV – value stocks of large companies), the Nasdaq (e.g., QQQ ETF), a Mid-Cap Stock Index ETF (e.g., IJH ETF), Russell 2000 index (e.g., IWM ETF), and the EFA ETF (or something similar). The first seven are major U.S. based indexes, while the last one tracks international stocks of developed countries outside the U.S. and Canada.

Of the above major market index ETFs, the most attractive ones right now appear to be: EFA, IWM, and IJH based on my analysis – the EFA is the most attractive of the three but the other two are not far behind. So, you can pick one or more of these ETFs or split your investment across these if that is your preference. None of these indexes/ETFs are without risk, however. For example, in a slowing economy, the IWM (or SPSM which is the one I like since it only includes the profitable small businesses contained in the Russell 2000 index) tends to outperform in lower inflation economic environments, lower interest rate economic environments, and when the economy is performing well overall. This index also tends to drop the fastest and deepest in a slowing economy but rebounds sharply in the midst of the economic slowdown in anticipation of economic recovery. So, if you are very concerned about these kinds of issues, then you might want to choose a different index to buy into or split your investment across different indexes. The IJH ETF has not been historically quite as risky as the IWM in a slowing economy and can serve as an intermediary to balance the risks between the small-cap indexes (such as the Russell 2000) and large cap indexes (such as the S&P 500, the Total Stock Market, and the Nasdaq). The EFA (or IEFA which is the one I like since the fees are lower) can be impacted by U.S. trade policy and has potential currency exchange risk as well since this index is not U.S. based – it is also the one most affected by oil prices as they rise; especially if they remain high. In terms of the potential currency exchange risk, a falling dollar tends to increase gains while a rising dollar tends to reduce gains. However, the currency exchange impact is not typically very substantial unless the dollar experiences big moves when it comes to the EFA ETF. You can read about the risks associated with the major stock market indexes here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/ (just scroll down to “UNIQUE DIFFERENCES IN STOCK MARKET INDEXES“).

Feel free to start buying in one or more of the aforementioned major market index ETFs if you are a HR or MR investor and the S&P 500 remains close to where it closed today or drops a little more below that level. You can use the specific major market indexes above or use a different one that suits you. Just ensure the fees are at least as low as the ones identified above when buying. Some people like to split their investments across multiple indexes to help manage the risk so feel free to do the same.

You don’t have to be very precise when buying into the overall stock market – a gain is experienced 93% of the time over rolling 5-year periods and 100% of the time over rolling 10-year periods no matter when you buy. In sharp contrast, being a seller or waiting for drops to happen can be challenging in that you will be “wrong” 93% of the time over rolling 5-year periods and 100% of the time over rolling 10-year periods. So, you have to be very precise as a seller which is one reason higher risk investors should probably never (or rarely) sell. You can read more about this here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/ (just scroll down to item 1 under “KEY HISTORICAL STOCK MARKET TRENDS”).

Here are a few historical trends which might be helpful to keep in mind: A 3-5% drop in the S&P 500 index generally happens about three times a year, a 10% drop generally happens about once every 1.5 years, and a 20%+ drop generally happens about twice every five years. So, the deeper the drop you wait for before buying, the higher the likelihood you’ll miss a significant rebound. You can read more about this here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/ (just scroll down to item 2 under “KEY HISTORICAL STOCK MARKET TRENDS”).

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/.

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities

I wish you much investing success for 2026 (and beyond!).

selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #success #finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket

For those who wanted to follow along, this will be the first execution of my refined, structured Market-Based Buying Strategy for 2026 for investing well with minimal effort: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/a-structured-market-based-buying-strategy-for-investing-well-with-minimal-effort/.

If you are a High Risk (HR) investor, this post is for you – investors of all other risk categories can wait and do nothing if you want. If you aren’t sure what your investment risk category is, you can find it here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/

HR Investors: The S&P 500 index has dropped about 4.4% from its all-time high (a 3-5% drop in the S&P 500 index generally happens about three times a year on average) – so if it remains at its present level or drops a little more(~661 for the SPY ETF or ~6630 for the S&P 500 index would represent about a 5% drop), you might consider buying 33% or more (depending on your investment style and preference) of the cash you have available in your overall investment account into one of the major market index Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) (or you can split that across multiple major market indexes if you prefer). I anticipate there will be a more substantial decline in the overall S&P 500 index, but I could be wrong – and the longer and the deeper the drop you wait for, the greater the likelihood you will miss the rebound. So, HR investors might want to prepare to go ahead and buy – other investors might be more inclined to take their chances by waiting for a deeper drop. It’s your financial future so do what you think is best for you.

I currently track eight major market index ETFs: S&P 500 index (e.g., SPY ETF), an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 Index (e.g., RSP ETF), the Total Stock Market index (e.g., VTI ETF), the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares (VTV – value stocks of large companies), the Nasdaq (e.g., QQQ ETF), a Mid-Cap Stock Index ETF (e.g., IJH ETF), Russell 2000 index (e.g., IWM ETF), and the EFA ETF (or something similar). The first seven are major U.S. based indexes, while the last one tracks international stocks of developed countries outside the U.S. and Canada.

Of the above major market index ETFs, the most attractive ones right now appear to be: IWM, IJH, and EFA based on my analysis – they are all pretty close right now so you can pick either one of these ETFs or split your investment across these if that is your preference. None of these indexes/ETFs are without risk, however. For example, in a slowing economy, the IWM (or SPSM which is the one I like since it only includes the profitable small businesses contained in the Russell 2000 index) tends to outperform in lower inflation economic environments, lower interest rate economic environments, and when the economy is performing well overall. This index also tends to drop the fastest and deepest in a slowing economy but rebounds sharply in the midst of the economic slowdown in anticipation of economic recovery (the SPSM is even more attractive than the IWM right now based on my analyses). So, if you are very concerned about these kinds of issues, then you might want to choose a different index to buy into or split your investment across different indexes. The IJH ETF has not been historically quite as risky as the IWM in a slowing economy and can serve as an intermediary to balance the risks between the small-cap indexes (such as the Russell 2000) and large cap indexes (such as the S&P 500, the Total Stock Market, and the Nasdaq). The EFA (or IEFA which is the one I like since the fees are lower) can be impacted by U.S. trade policy and has potential currency exchange risk as well since this index is not U.S. based – it is also the one most affected by oil prices as they rise. I anticipate the rise in oil prices to be a short-term issue, however, but I could be wrong. In terms of the potential currency exchange risk, a falling dollar tends to increase gains while a rising dollar tends to reduce gains. However, the currency exchange impact is not typically very substantial unless the dollar experiences big moves when it comes to the EFA ETF. You can read about the risks associated with the major stock market indexes here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/ (just scroll down to “UNIQUE DIFFERENCES IN STOCK MARKET INDEXES“).

Feel free to start buying in one or more of the aforementioned major market index ETFs if you are a HR investor and the S&P 500 remains close to where it closed today or drops a little more below that level. You can use the specific major market indexes above or use a different one that suits you. Just ensure the fees are at least as low as the ones identified above when buying. Some people like to split their investments across multiple indexes to help manage the risk so feel free to do the same.

You don’t have to be very precise when buying into the overall stock market – a gain is experienced 93% of the time over rolling 5-year periods and 100% of the time over rolling 10-year periods no matter when you buy. In sharp contrast, being a seller or waiting for drops to happen can be challenging in that you will be “wrong” 93% of the time over rolling 5-year periods and 100% of the time over rolling 10-year periods. So, you have to be very precise as a seller which is one reason higher risk investors should probably never (or rarely) sell. You can read more about this here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/ (just scroll down to item 1 under “KEY HISTORICAL STOCK MARKET TRENDS”).

Here are a few historical trends which might be helpful to keep in mind: A 3-5% drop in the S&P 500 index generally happens about three times a year, a 10% drop generally happens about once every 1.5 years, and a 20%+ drop generally happens about twice every five years. So, the deeper the drop you wait for before buying, the higher the likelihood you’ll miss a significant rebound. You can read more about this here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/investment-tools/ (just scroll down to item 2 under “KEY HISTORICAL STOCK MARKET TRENDS”).

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/.

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities

I wish you much investing success for 2026 (and beyond!).

selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #success #finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket

For the first time in a lengthy period of time all of the major stock market indexes I track are roughly the same in terms of relative comparative analysis. So, everything seems a bit high right now and there is no comparative outlier in terms of compelling opportunities. To me this means it might be best to sit tight and wait for a pullback before putting additional money to work unless you’re a higher risk investor who tends to dollar cost average into the stock market on a regular basis.

I currently track each of the following major market indexes: S&P 500 index (e.g., SPY ETF), an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 Index (e.g., RSP ETF), the Total Stock Market index (e.g., VTI ETF), the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares (VTV – value stocks of large companies), the Nasdaq (e.g., QQQ ETF), a Mid-Cap Stock Index ETF (e.g., IJH ETF), Russell 2000 index (e.g., IWM ETF), and the International Developed Market Index ETF (e.g., EFA ETF). The first seven are major U.S. based indexes, while the last one tracks international stocks of developed countries outside the U.S. and Canada.

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing. So, use any downtime you might have to your advantage by gaining this knowledge and learning these skills and techniques (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/).

Make it your goal to learn these investment techniques so that you can progress towards achieving the financial freedom and independence you’ve always dreamed of. I would have done so much better if I had learned this stuff years ago.

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities

Lastly, all of my finance/investing posts are here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/category/financial-planning-management-and-investing-related-posts/

I wish you much investing success for 2026 (and beyond).

#selfimprovement, #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #success #finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket

FINAL SCORE =>>> JOE: +8% INFLATION: +2.6%

I had a pretty good year in the stock market this year overall – especially since I am now a low-risk investor. As a low-risk investor my primary financial objective is to maintain my spending power by beating inflation or at least not giving back the stellar gains I achieved over the past decade or so (my 12-year average annual gain through and including the losses from 2022 was 35% as you can see by scrolling through the following post: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/final-stock-market-score-joe-57-2-spx-24-2/). Core inflation was 2.6% year-over-year back in November – so I beat that number by a sizable margin (the December numbers have not yet been released).

Anyone who has met or exceeded their financial investment goal should be a low-risk investor like me. Everyone else should be taking a higher risk approach in order to achieve their financial investment goals. And if you need help with that, you know who to ask.

My best performing stock this year from the tariff bottom back in April was Coinbase (COIN) which gained 42%. My second-best performing stock from the same tariff bottom was a small cap index fund ETF (SPSM) which gained 34%. That’s about a 3-to-4-year gain on average over just a few months for these investments. Everyone that used my Market-Based strategy over that period in time would have done equally as well: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/how-well-did-my-market-based-strategy-work-this-year-how-about-a-40-gain-in-only-8-months/

When considering the entire year, my highest gains were TBT which gained 39%, Citigroup (C) which gained 35%, Coinbase (COIN) which gained 28%, GNK which gained 27%, SVXY which gained 17%, AAL which gained 15%, and SPSM which gained 14%. I had two losing stocks this year: TROX which lost 13% and UVXY which lost 2%. So, I didn’t do too bad overall.

I fell behind the major market indexes this year which is not surprising since I’m a low-risk investor – however, I wasn’t too far behind with a 8% gain: the Dow Jones Industrial Average index had an end-of-year (EOY) gain of 13%, the Russell 2000 index had an EOY gain of 11.3%, the S&P 500 index had an EOY gain of 16.4%, and the Nasdaq index had an EOY gain of 20.4%. The only major stock market index I beat this year was the S&P 500 Midcap 400 index which had an EOY gain of 5.9%. I did okay overall though because as a low-risk investor, I should not be matching the gains of the major market indexes – and whenever the overall markets drop, I’ll be thankful that I’m taking a low-risk approach.

My primary objective for 2025 was beating inflation which I was able to handily do. A secondary target I use as a low-risk investor is taking the EOY gain of the S&P 500 (SPX) and dividing by 5. I handily beat on that metric as well (16.4%/5 = 3.28%). So, overall, 2025 was a highly successful investment year for me. We’ll see what 2026 brings.

I’ve pretty much sold all of my stocks (I am presently only about 13% invested in stocks – the remaining 87% is in low-risk income) and am now awaiting a sizable drop before buying back into the stock market.

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing. So, use any downtime you might have to your advantage by gaining this knowledge and learning these skills and techniques (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/).

Make it your goal to learn these investment techniques so that you can progress towards achieving the financial freedom and independence you’ve always dreamed of. I would have done so much better if I had learned this stuff years ago.

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities

Lastly, all of my finance/investing posts are here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/category/financial-planning-management-and-investing-related-posts/

I wish you much investing success for 2026 (and beyond).

#selfimprovement, #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #success #finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket

One of the keys to financial success is being a disciplined saver. I always tell everyone to get into the practice of saving a minimum of 20% of everything you earn. If you do this, you won’t need to get into much debt aside from a car, student loan, or mortgage payment. If you have a lot of debt (especially credit card debt) then you should pay that off first and then focus on saving.

If you have young people in your life and can get them into the practice of doing this, you’ll never have to worry about their finances again.

The chart below summarizes this information:

I hope this will be helpful to some of you out there.

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/.

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities

I wish you much investing success for 2025 (and beyond!).

selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #success #finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket

Those of you that bought IWM or SPSM when I had posted multiple executions of my Market-Based Buy Strategy between 3 and 8 April are now sitting on 32%-40% gain so far for 2025. That’s about a 4-year gain on average in only 8 months. So, I hope many of you capitalized on this. Here’s the recap: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/7th-execution-of-market-based-buy-strategy/

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing. So, use any downtime you might have to your advantage by gaining this knowledge and learning these skills and techniques (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/).

Make it your goal to learn these investment techniques so that you can progress towards achieving the financial freedom and independence you’ve always dreamed of. I would have done so much better if I had learned this stuff years ago! I wish you much investing success for 2025 (and beyond!).

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities.

Lastly, all of my finance/investing posts are here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/category/financial-planning-management-and-investing-related-posts/

I wish you much investing success for 2025 (and beyond!).

selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #success #finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket

One common question I get is whether to put excess savings towards investing or towards paying down debt. For the most part, it makes sense to pay down debt unless the interest rate is very low (see charts below).

How low? Below 5.5%-7% is my recommendation depending on the investment account that would otherwise be funded. Most credit cards have interest rates that exceed 20% – so those drain your finances much faster than you can build your finances via investing.

The only exception to the above would be if your employer offers full or partial matching funds for a retirement account. In that case, you would first want to maximize your contributions to receive all matching funds since that would be free money. And choose the Roth option if you have a choice unless you are in the 32% tax bracket or higher.

I hope this will be helpful to some of you out there.

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/.

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities

I wish you much investing success for 2025 (and beyond!).

selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #success #finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket

if you understand nothing more about the stock market, please at least pay attention to the following chart:

The odds overwhelmingly favor buyers into the stock market over the longer-term (the odds of positive returns are 67%, 88%, 93%, and 100% over 1, 3, 5, and 10-year periods, respectively) – while the opposite is true of sellers (the odds of negative returns are 33%, 12%, 7%, and 0% over 1, 3, 5, and 10-year periods, respectively) – source: https://www.capitalgroup.com/individual/planning/investing-fundamentals/time-not-timing-is-what-matters.html#:~:text=Riding%20it%20out,Source:%20S&P%20500%20Index. So, buyers don’t have to be very precise to capitalize in terms of market timing while sellers have to be very precise.

I hope this will be helpful to some of you out there.

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/.

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities

I wish you much investing success for 2025 (and beyond!).

selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #success #finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket