One of my two biggest concerns in the stock market over the near-term (and beyond) involve the rapidly rising yields in the bond market (and declining bond prices since bond prices move opposite yields) resulting in substantial losses in what are traditionally “safe haven” low-risk investments. The days of using bonds and bond ETFs as “save havens” might be over. I wrote about all of that here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/storm-clouds-on-the-horizon-the-bond-markets-and-the-low-risk-safe-haven-facade/

The second big concern for me is the risk of a policy mistake by the Fed regarding inflation. The Fed might be using an outdated “play book” in that they plan to allow inflation to run “hot” and consider any near-term inflation to be temporary and transitory in nature (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-attempts-to-get-ahead-of-inflation-by-talking-down-transitory-effects-172650392.html). In fact, two inflationary components which are typically ignored by the Fed when assessing inflationary pressure (food and fuel costs) are rising substantially (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/high-food-prices-struggling-americans-211552448.html and https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-prices-spike-us-inflation-142654810.html)

What the Fed seems to be underappreciating is that this monetary policy body has historically been late in addressing inflation which can result in runaway inflation. Because, historically, once inflation takes hold, it becomes very difficult to get under control. So, my primary concerns on the inflationary front are the Fed’s underappreciation and downplaying of inflationary indicators and overconfidence in their tools and abilities to fight this once it takes hold.

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing and gain key investing insights and skills (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books…/).

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities/

I wish you much success in creating a brighter financial future for yourself, your loved ones, and those who follow.

Stay safe out there.

#finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

Always be a bit cautious when “experts” tout their past successes in making stock picks. I find it a bit humorous when individuals and companies advertise their winning stock picks in retrospect saying “we recommended these” (with the implication, of course, that we know how to pick winning stocks so you should listen to us for future stock picks). In this particular post, 3 highly successful stocks are highlighted in hindsight (https://www.fool.com/ext-content/3-stocks-for-the-economy-of-the-future/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=contentmarketing&utm_campaign=ecomsa-dig-boom&aid=9502&paid=9502&waid=9502&source=esafbwdg0217760&psource=esafbwdg0217760&wsource=esafbwdg0217760&utm_content=%7B%7Bad.name%7D%7D&exitpop=false&autoplay=false&fbclid=IwAR3ghhPYiarn5bN-yo1Yhi5FrzJXQJ7e44-qeRc_wS2gsiJUH2xTzQVcjG8&testId=a-sa-dig-econ&cellId=0&campaign=sa-digital-economy).

What they don’t tell you is that they’ve recommended thousands of companies over that time frame – many of which have gone bankrupt or have substantially underperformed. And, just by chance alone, when you have recommended thousands of company stocks over the years, being able to find 3 which have highly outperformed in that set, in hindsight, is no big accomplishment and takes no talent at all. Monkeys tossing darts at a dartboard of various stock names are likely to do as well by chance alone (or perhaps even better since they have no preconceived notions).

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing and gain key investing insights and skills (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books…/).

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities/

I wish you much success in creating a brighter financial future for yourself, your loved ones, and those who follow!

#finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

I was such an excellent “expert” investor in the 1990s, earned so much money in the stock market during that decade, and was so confident in my investing “skills” that in 1999-2000 I came up with a great idea. I took out a loan against my 401k, took a cash advance against one of my credit cards, and put all of that into the stock market because, well, “everything was going up,” you know. And what could possibly go wrong? Well, I earned about a -50% gain by the end of the dot com bubble.

Yeah. I was so good that I got back about half and still had to pay back the loans and cash advances. Thank goodness I didn’t have a margin account back then.

So, when you see me making jokes about “expert” investors these days – well, just know that I was one of those myself back in the 1990s during my early days as an investor. And my “retire in my 30s buy everything because everything is going up” plan didn’t quite work out the way I expected back then. A favorite movie line by a mangled survivor from a horror movie (one of the Saw movies I believe) comes to mind who willingly submitted to being tied up: “Well, it seemed like a good idea at the time…”

In hindsight, though, all of this was a valuable lesson. Don’t be overconfident. Don’t be an emotional investor. Curb your enthusiasm. And always come up with investment rules and plans “up front,” make adjustments to them over time, and remember to stick with them – especially during periods of chaos and volatility.

You’re welcome!

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing and gain key investing insights and skills (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books…/).

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities/

I wish you much success in creating a brighter financial future for yourself, your loved ones, and those who follow!

#finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

It’s always difficult predicting market tops. And you can’t necessarily assume things will happen similar and have the same effects as in the past with respect to the Fed, fiscal stimulus, and such.

I mean, in the previous recession, the housing market got crushed. This time the housing market sales and prices jumped. A lot. And throughout the entire recession. I mean who could have predicted that?

However, it’s a well established fact that people often lose more money anticipating market drops than from the actual market drops themselves. And most of the gains you’ll ever receive often happens right before major market tops. So, you kind of don’t want to miss out on those.

So, overall, I think people probably should keep investing but tighten their rules a bit, make less risky trades, and have a good cushion on of cash on hand to take advantage of significant drops.

Discipline, discipline, discipline. That is what’s key. Define your rules up front, adjust (tighten, loosen, etc.) them as needed, and stick with them. I frequently create rules for myself as an investor to guide and curb risk taking. For example, here are one of my current more macro market rules:

“BUY NEW STOCKS UP TO 15% OF INVESTMENT ACCOUNT. THEN STICK TO ONLY BUYING MORE OF THE EXISTING STOCKS UNTIL THE S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AND I ASSIGN IT A ‘STRONG BUY’ RATING. AT THAT POINT, I WILL START SCREENING AND PERHAPS CONSIDERING TO BUY NEW STOCKS.”

One of my more micro, individual stock rules are:

“AFTER BUYING INITIAL SHARES OF A STOCK, WAIT FOR AT LEAST A 10% DROP BEFORE CONSIDERING BUYING MORE.”

The above rules work pretty well for me as a lower risk investor. However, they are different today than they were years ago when I was a higher risk investor. And I adjust my rules based on whatever happens.

For example, when the markets started dropping back in February-March 2020, I had a pre-planned rule of:

“BUY 10% OF MY INVESTMENT ACCOUNT WHEN THE SPX DROPS 10%, BUY 2% MORE FOR EVERY SPX DROP OF 1% BEYOND THAT UNTIL SPX DROPS 15%, BUY 3% MORE FOR EVERY SPX DROP OF 1% BEYOND THAT UNTIL SPX DROPS 20%, AND BUY 4% MORE FOR EVERY SPX DROP OF 1% BEYOND THAT.”And that worked like a charm!I also have rules for selling.

So, do yourself a favor and come up with your investment rules beforehand, make adjustments as needed, and stick with them – especially during periods of chaos and volatility. Regarding what most concerns me going forward, well, I wrote a post recently about that: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/storm-clouds-on-the-horizon-the-bond-markets-and-the-low-risk-safe-haven-facade/

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing and gain key investing insights and skills (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books…/).

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities/

#finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

I’ve recently been thinking about the implications of “low-risk safe haven” bond market and bond fund investors losing a lot of money in those investments in the years to come and the bond market (bonds and bond funds/ETFs) losing its “low-risk safe haven” status resulting in substantial increases in interest rates, low confidence in abilities of the U.S. federal government being able to service its debts (perhaps even getting to the point similar to Greece or Italy), high inflation, future hesitancy of investors to buy bonds (government, municipal, and corporate) and bond funds/ETFs after years of losses resulting in still higher interest rates to entice new buyers, and a deteriorating economy and government/corporate finances due to the combination of these factors.

These are some of the dark clouds I’m seeing on the horizon. Lots of things to ponder and position for – especially since the perceived, historical, low-risk investments might actually become high-risk investments in the years to come. Perhaps the best longer term investment strategy will be investments which track longer term interest rates (e.g., shorting the longer-term bond market).

For perspective, take a look at the 10-year treasury rates (prices move in the opposite direction of yields) which have been falling for 40 years. The last time they went up consistently was during the 1960s and 1970s.

The bottom line is that bond prices (and bond funds for that matter) are extremely high right now (and yields extremely low) which means significant losses could be experienced by bond market and bond fund investors in the years to come.

For your reference, here’s an interesting article on debts and deficits: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/national-debt-affects-investments-212804085.html

Here’s another interesting article on bond market risk: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-financial-advisors-watch-bond-184731799.html

And here’s another interesting article on inflation: https://www.ally.com/do-it-right/trends/weekly-viewpoint-january-22-2021-inflation-affect-on-portfolio/

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing and gain key investing insights and skills (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books…/).

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities/

I wish you much success in creating a brighter financial future for yourself, your loved ones, and those who follow!

#finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #success