success

EARN ABOVE AVERAGE GAINS EVEN AS A LOW RISK INVESTOR

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

Some people have been asking why I’ve been doing so much selling in the stock market lately when there is a strong potential for more gains to come. The reason is I’m taking a lower risk approach this year so as to build on, but not jeopardize, the record gains I had last year (a 164% gain!).

Right now my overall portfolio has earned a little over 9% in only 5 months. And although this lags some of the other major market indexes right now, my goal for the entire year was primarily my end-of-2021 projection for inflation (2.5%). My stretch goal for the entire year was two times that projection (5%). So, I have exceeded both of these by a large margin in just 5 months. So, I certainly don’t want to risk those gains.

As a low risk investor, I am primarily targeting earning at least the realized headline inflation by the end of the year (the Federal Reserve targets core inflation which strips out food and energy but I don’t think that is very realistic – so, I use the headline inflation number as my end-of-year target). Thus, the realized headline inflation would have to end the year above 9% for me to miss my expected target based on the 9%+ I’ve earned to date. And I don’t see that happening.

A secondary target I like to use as a low risk investor is the end-of-year gain of the S&P 500 (SPX) divided by 5. So, if the SPX earns 30% for the year, I would expect to earn about 6%. Likewise, if the SPX loses 30% for the year, I would expect to lose about 6%. Thus, the SPX would have to end the year above 45% for me to miss my expected target based on the 9%+ I’ve earned to date. And I also don’t see that happening.

As of yesterday:

1) the realized headline inflation was 3.5%.

2) the S&P 500 has gained 10.6% this year so far. So, at this point in the year, I would expect a gain of about 2.1%.

So, I have far exceeded both my primary and secondary targets above which means looking for stocks to sell probably makes a lot of sense for me right now.

Since I have far exceeded my annual targets for this year, I am employing a new strategy which involves selling every gain – even if that involves selling partial shares of stocks I own (i.e ., just those shares which have earned gains – those which haven’t I generally continue holding). The only exceptions to this are stocks I think still have potential over the long term given the increased probability of inflation, overheating of the economy, and interest rate increases (e.g., energy, utilities, gold, shorting of bond market, etc.). The reason for this is that investors are not going to wait for the Fed to decide whether or not they want to start addressing these issues (they’ve called much of this transitory meaning they believe these effects will fade over time). Investors are likely to start aggressively positioning themselves as soon as the economic data and other indicators signal these kinds of pressures.   

Hopefully the above helps to give you some insight into how I am performing my investments this year. Most people need to take much higher risk than me so you probably wouldn’t want to use the approach I’m using. But some might.

You’ll be a very successful investor if you observe and learn from what happens and make adjustments to your investing strategies accordingly over time. So, investing strategies can change from time to time. And they should. Especially, when your risk category changes.

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing and gain key investing insights and skills (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books…/).

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities/

I wish you much success in creating a brighter financial future for yourself, your loved ones, and those who follow.

Happy investing everyone!

#finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

HAPPINESS/SUCCESS TIP: IF YOU WANT A BRIGHTER FUTURE, THEN INVEST IN IT… AND THIS IS ABOUT SO MUCH MORE THAN JUST MONEY

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

In order to achieve longstanding happiness and success in life and to create the brighter future and the life you really, really want, you must be willing to make short-term sacrifices in order to create your most desired longer-term future – and anything and everything that might include for you (and others in your life). And this is about so much more than just money.

Do you want to live a long and healthy life so you can spend more quality time with those you love and appreciate, create memorable experiences, and live a life full of freedom, peace, and independence for the remaining years and decades of your life? Well, then you probably need to mindfully invest in yourself by engaging in fitness activities and making healthy lifestyle choices. Sure, it might seem a bit painful and time consuming right now, but like most investments, it will really pay off over the longer term.

Do you have a dream that you really want to achieve or a cause where you really want to make a difference? Well, then you probably need to mindfully invest by performing the research, gaining the skills, and defining and taking the steps needed to achieve that. Sure, it might seem a bit painful right now, in terms of all the time and effort you might have to put in but, again, like most investments, it will really pay off in the long run.

Are there people in your life you would like to strengthen your relationships with or have you a strong desire to create a future relationship with a special someone? Well, then you probably need to mindfully invest by creating the balance you need in life so that you can mindfully participate in those relationships and take steps towards creating new relationship(s). Sure, things might seem a bit distant and awkward right now, but if you take regular, consistent steps to participate more in the relationships which matter most to you and position yourself for creating new relationships then, again, like most investments, it can really pay off over the longer term.

Do you want to achieve a sense of financial freedom in your life? Well, then you probably need to mindfully invest by getting in the practice of automatically saving 20% of everything you earn, developing and living with a sense of financial discipline, and learning how to invest and manage your money. Sure, you might not be able to live that exciting, lavish lifestyle filled with luster, experiences, and adventure right now but, again, like most investments, it will really pay off over the long run.

Are there any life experiences you really want for yourself? Well, then you probably need to mindfully invest by defining and taking steps to achieve that. Sure, it might seem a bit painful right now, in terms of all the time and effort you might have to put in but, again, like most investments, it will really pay off over the longer term.

And the above are just five broad categories of investment kinds of examples. There are several others we could come up with.

Lastly, don’t forget about the cross effects. For example, if you live an unhealthy lifestyle, do you suppose that could affect your finances, your relationships in terms of your abilities to inspire and actively participate, and the energy you have available to put towards the dreams you desire to achieve, the life experiences you would like to have, or the causes you would like to make a difference in? You better believe it might.

So, invest in yourself and invest in your future. And start today. Get in the practice of making all of the small sacrifices needed today, tomorrow, and all along the way so that you can achieve the brighter future you really, really want.

This and other happiness and self-improvement related tips are provided throughout my self-help oriented books: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books…/

#selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #intention #fulfillment #success #inspiration #happiness #mindfulness #peace #investment #love #relationships

HAPPINESS/SUCCESS TIP: ALWAYS BE MINDFUL OF WHAT YOU EXPEND YOUR TIME AND ENERGY ON

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

Here’s a Happiness/Success Tip which might be helpful to some of you out there: always being mindful of how you expend your time and energy. Focus on filling more of your life with that which makes you happy and inspires and fulfills you instead of focusing so much on that which does not. Because life isn’t short. We make it short by wasting time and energy.

So many people seem to get lost from time to time and forget the true purpose of their life is to be happy – and anything and everything that includes – for each and every one of them.

So, keep doing anything that makes you happy. And be mindful of anything which does not.

A lot of people seem to forget the latter – especially when they get consumed by negativity, bitterness, politics, conspiracy theories, and such. So, I wanted to provide a “friendly reminder” in case it might be helpful to some of you out there. Because your life is precious. And you’ll be a lot happier if you treat it that way.

#selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #intention #fulfillment #success #inspiration #happiness #mindfulness

TWO BIG INVESTMENT CONCERNS RIGHT NOW: RISING BOND RATES AND RISING INFLATION

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

One of my two biggest concerns in the stock market over the near-term (and beyond) involve the rapidly rising yields in the bond market (and declining bond prices since bond prices move opposite yields) resulting in substantial losses in what are traditionally “safe haven” low-risk investments. The days of using bonds and bond ETFs as “save havens” might be over. I wrote about all of that here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/storm-clouds-on-the-horizon-the-bond-markets-and-the-low-risk-safe-haven-facade/

The second big concern for me is the risk of a policy mistake by the Fed regarding inflation. The Fed might be using an outdated “play book” in that they plan to allow inflation to run “hot” and consider any near-term inflation to be temporary and transitory in nature (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-attempts-to-get-ahead-of-inflation-by-talking-down-transitory-effects-172650392.html). In fact, two inflationary components which are typically ignored by the Fed when assessing inflationary pressure (food and fuel costs) are rising substantially (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/high-food-prices-struggling-americans-211552448.html and https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-prices-spike-us-inflation-142654810.html)

What the Fed seems to be underappreciating is that this monetary policy body has historically been late in addressing inflation which can result in runaway inflation. Because, historically, once inflation takes hold, it becomes very difficult to get under control. So, my primary concerns on the inflationary front are the Fed’s underappreciation and downplaying of inflationary indicators and overconfidence in their tools and abilities to fight this once it takes hold.

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing and gain key investing insights and skills (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books…/).

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities/

I wish you much success in creating a brighter financial future for yourself, your loved ones, and those who follow.

Stay safe out there.

#finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

HAPPINESS/SUCCESS TIP: FIND, FOLLOW, AND FOCUS INTENTLY ON YOUR BURNING WHY

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

One of the keys to motivating yourself (and others) and making consistent and continual progress involves discovering what your burning WHY is and keeping it in clear focus over the weeks, months, years, and decades that follow – whether towards your life overall, for a specific goal or accomplishment, or some success you desire to achieve.

So, some of you might find, focus on, and follow a big, burning WHY in terms of your life overall for the long term if that creates enough motivation for you. Alternatively, you might find, focus on, and follow smaller, burning WHYs for right now in order to create motivation for each of your shorter term goals and such. Or you might use a combination of these approaches.

For example, in my own life, having the peace and freedom to do whatever I want, whenever I want, has been my life overall big, burning WHY for many years now and was enough to drive me to create and embody the financial and investing discipline and balance I needed to achieve that success. Some other person might have a smaller, burning WHY right now, which might involve spending a month in Paris a year from now. So, that smaller, burning WHY for the near term might motivate the individual to do whatever research, take the actions, and earn the money needed to achieve this goal. Someone else might have a smaller, burning WHY right now, in going hiking in the Rocky Mountains. So, that smaller, burning WHY for the near term might motivate this individual to engage in more fitness activities, eat healthier, and embrace healthier habits.

Visualization approaches can also be used to personify your big or small burning WHYs to motivate progress such as the following:

(1) Positive Visualization Approach. This is primarily a positive oriented motivational approach personifying your WHY(s). This essentially involves visualizing the person you greatly aspire to become, the ideal life you would greatly desire to live, or the highest success you greatly desire to achieve and collecting reminders of these – whether reflective of your life overall or your shorter term goals and such. By developing a positive means in which to visualize success and proceeding to visualize, or remind yourself of, this success on a regular basis, progress can be made towards achieving this success.

(2) Negative Visualization Approach. This is primarily a fear oriented motivational approach personifying your WHY(s) from the opposite end of the spectrum. This essentially involves visualizing the person you would most not like to become, the life that you would most not like to live, or the failures and other experiences you would most not like to have and collecting reminders of these – whether reflective of your life overall or your shorter term goals and such. For example, images of a homeless person suffering the effects of a prolonged addiction problem or a character in a movie who played such a role might serve this purpose. Another approach might be collecting reminders of those you love and appreciate who might be greatly affected by your nonsuccess. By developing a negative means in which to provide reminders of your life fears and the negative implications and consequences of nonsuccess, these can help to provide the strength and the motivation to resist or avoid these. And many studies have shown that pain can serve as a powerful motivational force since human beings tend to be “wired” towards avoiding pain/suffering and being risk averse.

(3)  Combined Positive/Negative Visualization Approach. This approach essentially involves two contrasting visualizations: One which represents the positive aspects (item 1 above) and another which represents the negative aspects (item 2 above).

Each of these approaches can help motivate success and improve progress. And the key to this progress and success hinges on finding, following, and focusing on your burning WHY(s) over the weeks, months, years, and decades to follow – whether in life overall, for a specific goal or accomplishment, or some success you desire to achieve. So, do this for yourself (and others) if you can.

This and other happiness and self-improvement related tips are provided throughout my self-help oriented books: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/ 

#selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #intention #fulfillment #success #inspiration #happiness #mindfulness

DON’T LISTEN TO INVESTMENT EXPERTS… BE A MONKEY INSTEAD

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

Always be a bit cautious when “experts” tout their past successes in making stock picks. I find it a bit humorous when individuals and companies advertise their winning stock picks in retrospect saying “we recommended these” (with the implication, of course, that we know how to pick winning stocks so you should listen to us for future stock picks). In this particular post, 3 highly successful stocks are highlighted in hindsight (https://www.fool.com/ext-content/3-stocks-for-the-economy-of-the-future/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=contentmarketing&utm_campaign=ecomsa-dig-boom&aid=9502&paid=9502&waid=9502&source=esafbwdg0217760&psource=esafbwdg0217760&wsource=esafbwdg0217760&utm_content=%7B%7Bad.name%7D%7D&exitpop=false&autoplay=false&fbclid=IwAR3ghhPYiarn5bN-yo1Yhi5FrzJXQJ7e44-qeRc_wS2gsiJUH2xTzQVcjG8&testId=a-sa-dig-econ&cellId=0&campaign=sa-digital-economy).

What they don’t tell you is that they’ve recommended thousands of companies over that time frame – many of which have gone bankrupt or have substantially underperformed. And, just by chance alone, when you have recommended thousands of company stocks over the years, being able to find 3 which have highly outperformed in that set, in hindsight, is no big accomplishment and takes no talent at all. Monkeys tossing darts at a dartboard of various stock names are likely to do as well by chance alone (or perhaps even better since they have no preconceived notions).

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing and gain key investing insights and skills (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books…/).

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities/

I wish you much success in creating a brighter financial future for yourself, your loved ones, and those who follow!

#finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

MY BLUNDER AS AN INVESTMENT “EXPERT”

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

I was such an excellent “expert” investor in the 1990s, earned so much money in the stock market during that decade, and was so confident in my investing “skills” that in 1999-2000 I came up with a great idea. I took out a loan against my 401k, took a cash advance against one of my credit cards, and put all of that into the stock market because, well, “everything was going up,” you know. And what could possibly go wrong? Well, I earned about a -50% gain by the end of the dot com bubble.

Yeah. I was so good that I got back about half and still had to pay back the loans and cash advances. Thank goodness I didn’t have a margin account back then.

So, when you see me making jokes about “expert” investors these days – well, just know that I was one of those myself back in the 1990s during my early days as an investor. And my “retire in my 30s buy everything because everything is going up” plan didn’t quite work out the way I expected back then. A favorite movie line by a mangled survivor from a horror movie (one of the Saw movies I believe) comes to mind who willingly submitted to being tied up: “Well, it seemed like a good idea at the time…”

In hindsight, though, all of this was a valuable lesson. Don’t be overconfident. Don’t be an emotional investor. Curb your enthusiasm. And always come up with investment rules and plans “up front,” make adjustments to them over time, and remember to stick with them – especially during periods of chaos and volatility.

You’re welcome! 🙂

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing and gain key investing insights and skills (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books…/).

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities/

I wish you much success in creating a brighter financial future for yourself, your loved ones, and those who follow!

#finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

ALWAYS DEFINE INVESTMENT RULES UP FRONT, ADJUST THEM OVER TIME, AND STICK TO THEM

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

It’s always difficult predicting market tops. And you can’t necessarily assume things will happen similar and have the same effects as in the past with respect to the Fed, fiscal stimulus, and such.

I mean, in the previous recession, the housing market got crushed. This time the housing market sales and prices jumped. A lot. And throughout the entire recession. I mean who could have predicted that?

However, it’s a well established fact that people often lose more money anticipating market drops than from the actual market drops themselves. And most of the gains you’ll ever receive often happens right before major market tops. So, you kind of don’t want to miss out on those.

So, overall, I think people probably should keep investing but tighten their rules a bit, make less risky trades, and have a good cushion on of cash on hand to take advantage of significant drops.

Discipline, discipline, discipline. That is what’s key. Define your rules up front, adjust (tighten, loosen, etc.) them as needed, and stick with them. I frequently create rules for myself as an investor to guide and curb risk taking. For example, here are one of my current more macro market rules:

“BUY NEW STOCKS UP TO 15% OF INVESTMENT ACCOUNT. THEN STICK TO ONLY BUYING MORE OF THE EXISTING STOCKS UNTIL THE S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY AND I ASSIGN IT A ‘STRONG BUY’ RATING. AT THAT POINT, I WILL START SCREENING AND PERHAPS CONSIDERING TO BUY NEW STOCKS.”

One of my more micro, individual stock rules are:

“AFTER BUYING INITIAL SHARES OF A STOCK, WAIT FOR AT LEAST A 10% DROP BEFORE CONSIDERING BUYING MORE.”

The above rules work pretty well for me as a lower risk investor. However, they are different today than they were years ago when I was a higher risk investor. And I adjust my rules based on whatever happens.

For example, when the markets started dropping back in February-March 2020, I had a pre-planned rule of:

“BUY 10% OF MY INVESTMENT ACCOUNT WHEN THE SPX DROPS 10%, BUY 2% MORE FOR EVERY SPX DROP OF 1% BEYOND THAT UNTIL SPX DROPS 15%, BUY 3% MORE FOR EVERY SPX DROP OF 1% BEYOND THAT UNTIL SPX DROPS 20%, AND BUY 4% MORE FOR EVERY SPX DROP OF 1% BEYOND THAT.”And that worked like a charm!I also have rules for selling.

So, do yourself a favor and come up with your investment rules beforehand, make adjustments as needed, and stick with them – especially during periods of chaos and volatility. Regarding what most concerns me going forward, well, I wrote a post recently about that: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/storm-clouds-on-the-horizon-the-bond-markets-and-the-low-risk-safe-haven-facade/

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing and gain key investing insights and skills (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books…/).

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities/

#finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

STORM CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON: THE BOND MARKETS AND THE “LOW-RISK SAFE HAVEN” FACADE

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

I’ve recently been thinking about the implications of “low-risk safe haven” bond market and bond fund investors losing a lot of money in those investments in the years to come and the bond market (bonds and bond funds/ETFs) losing its “low-risk safe haven” status resulting in substantial increases in interest rates, low confidence in abilities of the U.S. federal government being able to service its debts (perhaps even getting to the point similar to Greece or Italy), high inflation, future hesitancy of investors to buy bonds (government, municipal, and corporate) and bond funds/ETFs after years of losses resulting in still higher interest rates to entice new buyers, and a deteriorating economy and government/corporate finances due to the combination of these factors.

These are some of the dark clouds I’m seeing on the horizon. Lots of things to ponder and position for – especially since the perceived, historical, low-risk investments might actually become high-risk investments in the years to come. Perhaps the best longer term investment strategy will be investments which track longer term interest rates (e.g., shorting the longer-term bond market).

For perspective, take a look at the 10-year treasury rates (prices move in the opposite direction of yields) which have been falling for 40 years. The last time they went up consistently was during the 1960s and 1970s.

The bottom line is that bond prices (and bond funds for that matter) are extremely high right now (and yields extremely low) which means significant losses could be experienced by bond market and bond fund investors in the years to come.

For your reference, here’s an interesting article on debts and deficits: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/national-debt-affects-investments-212804085.html

Here’s another interesting article on bond market risk: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-financial-advisors-watch-bond-184731799.html

And here’s another interesting article on inflation: https://www.ally.com/do-it-right/trends/weekly-viewpoint-january-22-2021-inflation-affect-on-portfolio/

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing and gain key investing insights and skills (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books…/).

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities/

I wish you much success in creating a brighter financial future for yourself, your loved ones, and those who follow!

#finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

HAPPINESS/SUCCESS TIP: MAINTAIN A SENSE OF OPENNESS, OBJECTIVITY, AND FLEXIBITY

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

Here’s a Happiness/Success Tip on maintaining a sense of openness, objectivity, and flexibility throughout the days, months, years, and decades of your life. The human quality of consistency is overrated. Ways to learn and grow and evolve as a person include being open to new information and ideas and making adjustments along the way. This is an intelligent way to live and you’ll be much happier and more successful in life if you do.

So, get in the practice of embracing openness, objectivity, and flexibility and releasing close-mindedness, subjectivity, and rigidity. And don’t worry so much about maintaining a sense of consistency. Things change and you must adapt to these changes all along the way.

What a wonderful world we could all live in and share if we each lived in this fashion.

This and other happiness tips and topics are provided throughout my self-help, happiness, and investment oriented books: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/

#joy #love #gratitude #appreciation #selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #intention #fulfillment #success #inspiration #happiness #peace #mindfulness