The stock market has fallen about 2.5% from its most recent high. So, there might be another opportunity to buy into the stock market in the near future. Those of you who executed my Market-Based Buying Strategy for investing well with minimal effort back in the spring did very well for themselves (the overall stock market gained about 28% from its springtime low): https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/a-structured-market-based-buying-strategy-for-investing-well-with-minimal-effort/.
Higher risk investors might want to consider buying into the stock market after about a 5-10% decline from all-time highs. Medium risk and lower risk investors might want to wait and see if there’s a more substantial pullback. Just keep in mind that the lengthier drop you wait for, the more likely it is you’ll miss a substantial rebound.
For general awareness purposes, a 3-5% drop in the S&P 500 index (SPX) generally happens about three times a year, a 10% drop generally happens about once every two years, and a 20%+ drop generally happens once every five years on average. So far in 2025, the SPX has had nearly a 20% drop (or two 10% drops depending on how you count them since, back in spring, the first ~10% drop was followed by a nearly two-week period of gains before falling an additional ~10%). It’s also not clear whether it makes sense to count that previous drop since this was largely self-imposed by the ongoing and wildly fluctuating tariff and trade policy.
Right now, I’m anticipating at least a 7.5% drop in the SPX at some point in the near future but I could be wrong. Here are some of the reasons why I anticipate a drop of this magnitude (or greater):
1. August and September tend to be the worst months of the year for the stock market overall.
2. Inflation is starting to pick up again due to the ongoing tariff and trade war. This is likely to continue.
3. The overall economy appears to be weakening due to the ongoing tariff and trade war. This is likely to continue.
4. The combination of items 2 and 3 above is a recipe for a stagflationary economy (low or declining growth combined with higher inflation). The overall stock market tends to do poorly in stagflationary economic environments.
5. Many investors are highly leveraged right now (using margin debt in addition to all of their cash holdings to buy into the stock market – meaning they are much more than fully invested). This means any downturns are likely to be amplified – at least until much of the margin debt is cleared.
6. The quality of economic data appears to be deteriorating – reducing its overall effectiveness and predictive capabilities, and resulting in sharp revisions to previous months or continued uncertainties as the economic data plays catch-up with reality. This may not be as concerning for “good” economic data, but for “bad” economic data this means the economy could “sleepwalk” into a sharp downturn or recession, and large inflationary pressures could be experienced in the real economy long before getting reported – causing even greater inflationary pressures due to countermeasures being delayed and having to play catch-up. The overall atock market tends to not be very forgiving when it comes to negative surprises, and stock market declines frequently happen as a result.
7. Earnings season is largely over until mid-to-late October – so, there’s not much on the earnings front to help prop up the overall stock market in the near term.
8. Several overall stock market indicators indicate extreme highs or frothiness – see item 2 in the following link: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/a-structured-market-based-selling-strategy-for-investing-well-with-minimal-effort/
9. The combined effects of the above are likely to put downward pressure on the overall stock market in the near term.
So, all of the above means there might be another opportunity to buy into the stock market in the near future. Please let me know if you would like to be added to the list of people to contact when the thresholds of my Market-Based Strategy are reached so you can potentially capitalize on significant stock market declines when they happen.
If you are already fully invested, you might want to just stay the course since, as a whole, the overall stock market tends to go up over the longer term (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/why-the-overall-stock-market-goes-up-over-the-longer-term/). Most investors do much better by buying and remaining invested in the stock market rather than being sellers except on the rarest of occasions. The primary exception to this would be for those who are lower risk investors approaching their financial goals of which taking a lower risk, more cautious approach would be warranted.
Lastly, for your planning purposes, I’ve provided the 5 different risk categories I presently use at the bottom of this post.
You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/.
Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities
Happy investing everyone!
#selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #success #finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket
==== INVESTMENT RISK CATEGORIES ====
Important Note: When adding up what you have across your investment accounts, I recommend making the following adjustment for pre-tax type investment accounts (e.g., 401Ks and IRAs without the word “Roth” attached): reduce the total amount by 24% for a conservative overall estimate. We have to pay taxes when withdrawing from these kinds of accounts so this will help to account for that. Feel free to use a different percentage reduction depending on what tax bracket you believe you will fall into when withdrawing money from these accounts.
VERY HIGH-RISK INVESTOR (your investment goal is 8+ times what you presently have in total across your investment accounts – after making adjustments in accordance with the note above). For example, if your investment goal is $2M and you presently have $250k or less in total across your investment accounts then you would be a very high-risk investor.
HIGH-RISK INVESTOR (your investment goal is roughly 4-8 times what you presently have in total across your investment accounts – after making adjustments in accordance with the note above). For example, if your investment goal is $2M and you presently have $250k-$500k in total across your investment accounts then you would be a high-risk investor.
MEDIUM-RISK INVESTOR (your investment goal is roughly 2-4 times what you presently have in total across your investment accounts – after making adjustments in accordance with the note above). For example, if your investment goal is $2M and you presently have $500k-$1M in total across your investment accounts then you would be a medium-risk investor.
LOW-RISK INVESTOR (your investment goal is roughly 1-2 times what you presently have in total across your investment accounts – after making adjustments in accordance with the note above). For example, if your investment goal is $2M and you presently have $1M-$2M in total across your investment accounts then you would be a low-risk investor.
VERY LOW-RISK INVESTOR (what you presently have in total across your investment accounts equals or exceeds your investment goal – after making adjustments in accordance with the note above). For example, if your investment goal is $2M and you presently have $2M or more in total across your investment accounts then you would be a very low-risk investor.
Like this:
Like Loading...