For those who wanted to follow along, this will be another first execution of my refined, structured Market-Based Buying Strategy for investing well with minimal effort: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/a-structured-market-based-buying-strategy-for-investing-well-with-minimal-effort/.
If you are a High Risk (HR) investor, this post is for you – investors of all other risk categories can wait and do nothing if you want. If you aren’t sure what your investment risk category is, scroll down to the bottom of this post.
HR Investors: The S&P 500 index has dropped about 3% from its all-time high (a 3-5% drop in the S&P 500 index generally happens about three times a year on average) – so if it remains at its present level or drops a little more (~639.50 for the SPY ETF or ~6415 for the S&P 500 index would represent about a 5% drop), you might consider buying 33% or more (depending on your investment style and preference) of your overall investment account into one of the major market index Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) (or you can split that across multiple major market indexes if you prefer). I anticipate there will be a more substantial decline in the overall S&P 500 index, but I could be wrong – and the longer and the deeper the drop you wait for, the greater the likelihood you will miss the rebound. So, HR investors might want to prepare to go ahead and buy – other investors might be more inclined to take their chances by waiting for a deeper drop. It’s your financial future so do what you think is best for you.
I currently track eight major market index ETFs: S&P 500 index (e.g., SPY ETF), an equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 Index (e.g., RSP ETF), the Total Stock Market index (e.g., VTI ETF), the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares (VTV – value stocks of large companies), the Nasdaq (e.g., QQQ ETF), a Mid-Cap Stock Index ETF (e.g., IJH ETF), Russell 2000 index (e.g., IWM ETF), and the EFA ETF (or something similar). The first seven are major U.S. based indexes, while the last one tracks international stocks of developed countries outside the U.S. and Canada.
Of the above major market index ETFs, the most attractive right now appears to be: IJH, EFA, and IWM based on my analysis – they are all pretty close right now so you can pick either one of these ETFs or split your investment across these if that is your preference. None of these indexes/ETFs are without risk, however. For example, in a slowing economy, the IWM (or SPSM which is the one I like since it only includes the profitable small businesses contained in the Russell 2000 index) tends to drop the fastest and the deepest but usually rebounds sharply at some point (the SPSM is even more attractive than the IWM right now based on my analyses). So, if you are very concerned about a potential slowing economy, then you might want to choose a different index to invest in or split your investment across different indexes. The IJH ETF has not been historically quite as risky as the IWM in a slowing economy, and the EFA (or IEFA which is the one I like since the fees are lower) has currency exchange risk since it is not US-based, can be impacted by the current administration’s trade policy, and this index ETF has tended to lag the U.S. market indexes in recent years (2025 has been a notable exception, however) – the dollar has continued to fall this year and if that continues then some of the risks might be avoided for the EFA ETF.
Feel free to start buying in one or more of the aforementioned major market index ETFs if you are a HR investor and the S&P 500 remains close to where it closed this past Friday or drops a little more below that level. You can use the specific major market indexes above or use a different one that is suits you. Just ensure the fees are at least as low as the ones identified above when buying.
Another thing to keep in mind is that, historically speaking, October through December is usually some of the better months to invest in the stock market in terms of overall gains. It does not always happen, but it does for much of the time. In stark contrast, August and September are usually the worst months to invest as stocks tend to fall in those months, but they didn’t this year – so perhaps the historical trend will not hold up this year for October through December either. We’ll have to wait and see. As an investor, I tend to play the odds not the exceptions – but you can experience some financial pain when the exceptions happen.
You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/.
Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities
I wish you much investing success for 2025 (and beyond!).
selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #success #finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket
==== INVESTMENT RISK CATEGORIES ====
Important Note: When adding up what you have across your investment accounts, I recommend making the following adjustment for pre-tax type investment accounts (e.g., 401Ks and IRAs without the word “Roth” attached): reduce the total amount by 24% for a conservative overall estimate. We have to pay taxes when withdrawing from these kinds of accounts so this will help to account for that. Feel free to use a different percentage reduction depending on what tax bracket you believe you will fall into when withdrawing money from these accounts.
HIGH-RISK INVESTOR (your investment goal is 4+ times what you presently have in total across your investment accounts – after making adjustments in accordance with the note above). For example, if your investment goal is $2M and you presently have $500k or less in total across your investment accounts then you would be a high-risk investor.
MEDIUM-RISK INVESTOR (your investment goal is roughly 2-4 times what you presently have in total across your investment accounts – after making adjustments in accordance with the note above). For example, if your investment goal is $2M and you presently have $500k-$1M in total across your investment accounts then you would be a medium-risk investor.
LOW-RISK INVESTOR (your investment goal is no more than 2 times what you presently have in total across your investment accounts – after making adjustments in accordance with the note above). For example, if your investment goal is $2M and you presently have $1M or more in total across your investment accounts then you would be a low-risk investor.