bondmarket

A SIMPLE LESSON IN FINANCE: WHY INVESTING INVIGORATES AND DEBT DEVASTATES YOUR FINANCES

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

Here’s a simple lesson in finance for those who might need it: Investing money substantially increases your finances overall while carrying debt does much worse than the opposite. And the difference is astounding.

A simple common expression used to demonstrate how investments grow over time is called “the rule of 72.” The average interest rate expressed as a whole number times the number of years required to double an initial investment equals 72. Let’s take a look at how this simple rule can impact your finances. Let’s start with investing first.

Imagine you invested $10,000 earning 8% interest (8% is a reasonable figure given that the long-term average earned in the stock market has historically been about 7.5% – it has been much higher in recent years but at some point it could revert back to its long-term average). This means, using the rule of 72, that your $10,000 initial investment will become $20,000 in 9 years (8 x 9 = 72), $40,000 in 18 years, $80,000 in 27 years, and $160,000 in 36 years. And that is all from just making a single, one-time, initial investment of $10,000 at the beginning. I want you all to stop and think about that for a moment: Your $10,000 grew to $160,000 by doing nothing else. This is how compound interest works and how you make your money work for you – instead of against you.

Most people will do much better than the above because they will continue adding to their investments over time – and as long as they do not remove money from their investment (a mistake many people make by the way), then the power of compound interest will continue working in their favor.

The above example also illustrates why starting saving and investing at an early age is very important. And if you want to learn how to how to invest well and create a brighter future with minimal effort, please read this: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/how-to-invest-well-and-create-a-brighter-future-with-minimal-effort/

Now, let’s take a look at the opposite side of things to see how debt can devastate your finances. Imagine you had the same $10,000 as credit card debt at a 24% interest rate (24% is a little high by today’s standards – credit card rates presently average about 21% – but are higher for people with lower credit scores) but using 24% simplifies calculations and makes it much easier to compare both sides of the story between investing and debt.

Using the above figures mean, using the same rule of 72, that for your $10,000 in initial debt, you will end up paying $20,000 in 3 years (24 x 3 = 72), $40,000 in 6 years, $80,000 in 9 years, $160,000 in 12 years, $320,000 in 15 years, and $640,000 in 18 years if you didn’t make any payments at all (Note: this is not realistic since most people make at least the minimum payments – which largely reflect the payments on interest only – I’m just trying to demonstrate how much more quickly and deeply debt impacts your finances as compared to investing your money). And that is all just from having an initial debt of $10,000. I want you all to stop and give this some serious thought: Your $10,000 of initial debt grew to $640,000 in only 18 years. This is how debt can quickly, deeply, and easily devastate your finances.

Most people would do much worse than the above because they won’t stop at the initial debt – but will continue adding to their debts over time up until reaching their credit limits – which means the power of compound interest continues working against them.

Let’s now compare the two: In 18 years, your $10,000 investment grew to $40,000 but your $10,000 in debt became $640,000 over the same period of time. This illustrates why so many people get so far behind in their finances, and the simple but very important lesson in finance is this: Make your money work for you over the longer term instead of working against you by living with a strong sense of financial discipline – eliminating debt and investing your money instead. I have no objection to people having credit cards and such to help build up their credit scores and such but get into the practice of paying them off every month so you don’t have to pay interest or fees. If you do this and invest in your future, then you will create a brighter future for yourself and others in your life for the years and decades to come. So, do this if you can.

Again, the above isn’t truly accurate on the debt side of things because it reflects the overall impact if you made no payments at all – I have not factored in the fact that when you make the minimum payments on credit card debt, you are usually paying the interest. So, the interest portion of that debt isn’t working against you the way the much larger debt portion is. However, the interest only payments tend to be quite large (and provide no benefit since they typically pay little to nothing down on the debt portion) and, between that and the debt overall, it would still have a devastating effect on your finances as a whole in a short amount of time and would have required a more complicated calculation to get more precise numbers. I’m really just trying to illustrate the basic concepts of investing versus debt using simple calculations so that people can easily understand why debt can be so devastating in a short amount of time and why the power of compound interest works in their favor on the investment side of things. Also, rest assured the credit card companies will cut you off long before you reach such excessive numbers in terms of your debt to them for their own, financial well-being. However, the impact to your finances would be substantial.

You can read more about my finance and investing tips here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/category/financial-planning-management-and-investing-related-posts/

You can learn about my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/.

And, lastly, you can read about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities

I wish you much finance and investing success for 2024 (and beyond!).

#selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #intention #fulfillment #success #inspiration #happiness #mindfulness #peace #joy #positivethinking #balance #finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket

HOW TO INVEST WELL AND CREATE A BRIGHTER FUTURE WITH MINIMAL EFFORT

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

Over the past couple of weeks, I have been traveling through Portugal and have met some very nice people. And once they find out I’m a life coach, many of them have become very interested in any financial advice I can provide to help them create a brighter future. So, this inspired me to write the “Joe Brennan 6-Step Process to Financial Success” with minimal effort:

1. Get into the practice of automatically saving a minimum of 20% of everything you earn – wages, gifts, tips, whatever and open an online brokerage trading/investing account to place your money in such that it earns a decent interest rate (I earn about 5% interest via my Fidelity standard trading account). The reason this is important is because you don’t want to fall behind inflation when saving money. A lot of banks pay much less interest than online brokerage trading/investment accounts do. The 20%+ automatic savings is important because it forces financial discipline – resulting in a greater ability to accumulate financial wealth and achieve financial freedom much sooner than would be experienced otherwise. In fact, if you have kids and get them into this practice at a very young age, then this would serve to not only benefit them, but you as well since you won’t have to worry so much about their finances and they won’t have to rely on you as much in the years and decades to come. The earlier you start saving, the less of your overall income percentage wise you would need to save over the years of your life. I generally recommend 20% for people who start at the age of 20 and increase it by 1% per year if they start later than age 20. So, if you start at age 24 you need to save 24%, if you start at age 31 you need to save 31%, and if you start at age 41 you need to save 41% for the rest of your life. So, the earlier you start, the less of your overall income you have to save percentage wise over the years of your life. So, if you start at age 20, you can save 20% for the rest of your life and be in good shape financially speaking – but if you start at age 34, you’ll need to save 34% for the rest of your life. So, the earlier you start, the better. And the percentages above include any matching funds or financial incentives your employer might provide (some employers provide up to 5% or so of matching funds and such for retirement plans).

2. Track one of the major stock market indexes representative of the overall stock market. In the United States, I like to track the S&P 500 index [SPY is an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) that tracks the S&P 500 Index]. When the major index falls 10% or more (I’m a very low risk investor so I will wait for a 25% drop), check the other major indexes and see which one has fallen the most. In the United States, frequently the Russell 2000 index (IWM is an ETF that tracks this index) falls much more than the S&P 500 index – especially, when a recession is expected. A 5% drop in the S&P 500 index generally happens about three times a year, a 10% drop generally happens about once a year, and a 20%+ drop generally happens about twice every five years. A lot of times major stock indexes will decline more once they drop 20% (defined as a bear market). However, the recovery is often swift. So, you want to be fully invested fairly soon after that happens. Otherwise, you can miss out on substantial gains. Just for some points of reference: a 25% drop results in a 33% gain once the index or ETF gets back to breakeven, a 33% drop results a 50% gain once the index or ETF gets back to breakeven, and a 50% drop results a 100% gain once the index or ETF gets back to breakeven. So, waiting for a drop before putting money to work can be greatly beneficial while being fully invested when a drop happens can substantially hurt your finances. This is why avoiding investing at the top can be an important factor for your overall, financial well-being (e.g., if you experience a 33% drop, you need a 50% gain just to get back to even, and if you experience a 50% drop, you need a 100% gain just to get back to even).

3. Move your accumulated savings to date into the ETF you have selected in Step 2. As long as this ETF continues falling or rises somewhat, keep putting your new savings into the ETF.

4. Once your ETF gains to the point to where it approaches the all-time high (or if you are a higher risk investor, you might wait for additional gains before selling or not sell at all), stop putting your new savings into the ETF and just keep it in your online brokerage trading/investing account earning the standard interest rate.

5. Only pull money from this account when gains are experienced and only for that which invests in your future such as a down payment for a house, educational expenses likely to lead to a higher paying job, rental properties as an investment, a new business you want for yourself, or after reaching your long-term financial freedom or retirement goal.

6. Repeat steps 1-5 for any new savings accumulated.

The above is a simplified process which might be helpful for some of you. If you are in your mid-thirties or so (or even less – the younger you are, the better you will likely do over time), then this process should get you where you need to be in your life financially speaking. However, there is never a guarantee, and you might want to adjust this process. If you elect to take a higher risk approach, then you can earn substantial gains if you wait things out – although you might experience substantial losses in the near term. If you elect to take a lower risk approach, then you may not experience substantial losses in the near term but will probably not make as much in gains over the longer term. For example, a higher risk investor might start moving savings after only a 10%-15% drop in the major index and stop investing new savings once the ETF hits its all-time high (or above) while a lower risk investor might start moving savings after a 20% drop or more in the major index and stop investing once the ETF gains to the point that where it is about 5%-10% from the all-time high.

The above process guarantees that you never invest at the market top. It also ensures that you invest early enough in bear markets so that you will hopefully, eventually, earn substantial gains.

The reason the above process should work well for many people is that in the first few years of investing, the amount saved matters much more than the actual gains or losses experienced in the stock market. So, people can just save and wait for a substantial stock market drop to invest and will probably do pretty well over time. Once savings have been accumulated for a few years or so, then the gains and losses experienced matter increasingly more over time and a lower risk investment approach will probably be more appropriate.

The above process is not perfect, but give it a try, make adjustments over time, and if you need help with any of this just ask.

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/.

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities

I wish you much investing success for 2024 (and beyond!).

selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #intention #fulfillment #success #inspiration #happiness #mindfulness #peace #joy #positivethinking #balance #finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #bonds #bondmarket

A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS: THE RETURN OF LOW-RISK SAFE HAVEN INVESTMENTS VIA THE BOND MARKET

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

For the first time in nearly 3 years, I am starting to return to the “low-risk, safe haven” bond market and bond fund/ETF investments. I wrote about the risks previously in January/February 2021 (TWO BIG INVESTMENT CONCERNS RIGHT NOW: RISING BOND RATES AND RISING INFLATION | BRIGHTER DAYS LIFE COACHING® and STORM CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON: THE BOND MARKETS AND THE “LOW-RISK SAFE HAVEN” FACADE | BRIGHTER DAYS LIFE COACHING®). Since writing those posts nearly three years ago, longer-term bonds and bond funds/ETFs have dropped 46% which is very unusual for the bond market when considering its longer-term history as a low-risk, safe haven investment – these losses are more typical of a stock market decline than a bond market decline. Due to this outsized drop and other factors, longer-term bonds and bond funds/ETFs have now become very attractive in my opinion – and I will continue buying into them on any future weakness.

Some of the reasons I think longer-term bonds and bond funds/ETFs might be a good investment going forward include the following:

1) The high interest rates (and the corresponding low bond prices since interest rates and prices on bonds are inversely related) is likely to make the United States (and other nations) inclined to provide less fiscal support and/or higher taxation in future years due to the higher cost of servicing debt – inflation would be another contributor to this,

2) The hesitancy of the Federal Reserve to provide as much economic support in the future as they have in the past in terms of interest rate reductions and Quantitative Easing (QE) for buying bonds and such,

3) a deteriorating economy and corporate earnings due to the combination of the above two factors which is likely (at some point) to result in substantial stock market declines and corresponding gains in low-risk, safe haven investments such as bonds and bond funds/ETFs. Much of the gains experienced in the stock market tend to be earnings, economy, and policy related.

These are some of things I’m seeing on the horizon right now. Lots of things to ponder and position for – especially since historical, low-risk, safe haven investments seem to be poised to regain their previous luster in the years to come. As such, perhaps one of the better longer-term investment strategies might be to start buying into longer term bonds and bond funds/ETFs.

For perspective, take a look at the 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year treasury yields (prices move in the opposite direction of yields) which had been falling for 40 about years but are now starting to normalize a bit. The last time they went up consistently was during the 1960s and 1970s but are now starting to rise again.

The bottom line is the prices of bonds and bond funds/ETFs are starting to normalize a bit which means substantial gains could be experienced by bond market and bond fund/ETF investors in the years to come. So, it might be wise to start positioning accordingly.

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing and gain key investing insights and skills (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books…/).

Also, you can read all about my stock market activities here: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/stock-market-activities/

I wish you much success in creating a brighter financial future for yourself, your loved ones, and those who follow!

#finance #stocks #investing #stockmarket #success #bonds #bondmarket