This article is about some of the factors a solid investor considers when managing risk and making adjustments in investment strategies over time. I recently made the decision to remove funds from my investment account to pay off my mortgage on my investment property as well as the second mortgage on my home. You might question such a decision given that, significant gains can generally be made in the stock market over time and, from a seasonal standpoint, the highest gains typically occur in the stock market between November and April. Well, there were two primary reasons why I made this decision:

(1) The primary stock market index that I track, the S&P 500 (SPX), has gained over 200% over the past six years while the long term average is approximately 7% per year. This indicates that, at some point, it is likely these more recent outsized gains will revert to the mean perhaps by the SPX registering several years of mediocre gains or perhaps even substantial losses. Paying off these mortgages is essentially the equivalent of experiencing guaranteed 4-5% annual gains over the next twenty to thirty years and, given the outsized gains experienced to date, and the potential for mean reversion, this might turn out to be a much better gain over the long term versus risking what I have and investing in something that is far less certain.

(2) Substantially reducing the size of my investment account curbs my risk taking in the stock market and, should substantial losses be experienced in the future, these will have a much more limited impact on my financial position overall.

Years ago I was firmly against using investment funds to pay off mortgages, because the potential stock market gains far outweighed the typical interest rates and the associated tax benefits, but the times have changed and I am now in favor of doing just that; especially for those investors within six or seven years of retirement. I recommend, however, that investors 10+ years away from retirement instead regularly sell shares of their investments so that they will have cash available to take advantage of stock market declines when they happen. In the present investing environment, I prefer cash over investing in bonds or bond funds due to interest rates being at historical lows and the likelihood that interest rates will begin rising over the next few years. According to one article, based on historical data, even as little as a 1% rise in interest rates over a period of six months (a 0.25% rate hike per Fed meeting – the Fed meets every six weeks), which is a reasonable expectation, could result in a 5.4% loss in bonds and the bond funds which track them. So I recommend steering clear of bonds and bond funds at least until interest rates “normalize” a bit. Cash might be a better option until this happens, because you would then only experience losses due to inflation (about a 2% inflation rate per year is a reasonable expectation). However, the losses experienced in bonds and bond funds would be in addition to losses due to inflation. So that 5.4% loss I alluded to earlier would effectively amount to a 7.4% loss overall when also including the inflationary effect. Of course, there are times when the bond market might do well, especially when there is substantial fear in the stock market and people sell their stocks and buy bonds instead, but it is likely that these spikes will be short lived and temporary in nature. Furthermore, timing these spikes is likely to prove to be difficult both when buying into and when selling out of these. I believe a much safer way to invest going forward is cashing out from time to time and using that cash to buy stocks during stock market declines. Another option would be to purchase portfolio protection such as volatility products which rise when overall stock markets fall.

In summary, the risk-reward of the overall stock market is no longer as favorable as it has been in the past, the risk-reward of the overall bond market appears to be highly unfavorable in nature with the exception of short term spikes due to fear in the stock market, and cash appears to be “king” given the investing environment we are rapidly approaching so that we can capitalize on potential stock market declines. I have a solid risk management strategy that I developed specifically for use in investing environments such as this, for the clients that I work with, so feel free to contact me if you’d like to find out more.

Each of the above are indications that it might make sense to tread carefully going forward with respect to your investments. Effectively managing your risk and having cash available to take advantage of future compelling investment opportunities will allow you to succeed in this kind of investing environment. Being a solid investor involves effectively managing risk and taking actions to exit investments which become unfavorable in nature and capitalizing on new investment opportunities which become favorable in nature. By periodically rotating out of investments which become less favorable and into investment opportunities which become more favorable in nature you will realize consistent investment success over time. You won’t make winning investments all of the time, but the point is to use strategies and techniques which allow you to make winning investments for much of the time. I can help in these regards.

This article informs some of the factors a solid investor considers when managing risk and making adjustments in investment strategies over time. Part of being a successful investor, and realizing consistent gains over time, involves recognizing indicators of when to reduce your exposure to certain investment alternatives, and risk overall, when to increase your exposure to certain investment alternatives, and risk overall, and when to cash out and sit on the sidelines patiently awaiting the next compelling investment opportunities and favorable investing environments overall.

Please contact me if you need any assistance with any of your financial planning, management, and/or investing needs as this is one of the areas that I actively perform life coaching and training in. Also feel free to click on “Financial Planning, Management, and Investing Related Posts” to the sidebar on the right or below (depending upon which device you are using to view this article) for helpful tips on how to become a solid investor.

Other articles that I’ve written related to financial planning, management, and investing include:
(1) Reasons to Sell or Short-Sell Stocks and Other Investments
(2) Risk: How Much Should You Take When Investing Your Money?
(3) Using Technical Indicators and Charts to Guide Stock Market Activities and Using Price Averaging to Manage Risk
(4) Using Bollinger Bands, Stochastics, and Other Indicators to Guide Stock Market Activities
(5) Using Moving Averages and Price Averaging to Realize Consistent Gains in the Stock Market

These articles provide helpful tips on how to become a solid investor so read through some of these if you think they might be helpful to you. In addition, in case some of you would like to follow along, here is where I regularly post about my stock market activities. So feel free to visit this page if you’d like to follow what I’m doing in the stock market at any given time.

For those that did not know, I generally perform life coaching and training services in two primary areas: 1) Personal and Professional Improvement, Development, and Growth, and 2) Financial Planning, Management, and Investing. As such, I generally alternate the articles that I write via my blogs between these two topic areas. This particular article is associated with the second area that I life coach in. So if you don’t have much interest in financial planning, management, and investing, rest assured that the next article that I write will be in the area that you might have greater interest in; the personal and professional improvement, development, and growth area. You can also follow me on Twitter if you like at: Joseph M Brennan Jr @ BrighterDaysLC

Joseph M. Brennan Jr.
CEO/Life Coach – Brighter Days Life Coaching
“Your Brighter Days Life Coach for Life”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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