Author: Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

☆°▪︎ THE WHISPER AND THE BURN ▪︎°☆

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

It

.

f

e

l

l

.

as

.

a

.

whisper . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ a

.

whisper

.

l

e

f

t

.

unheard . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

I

.

do

.

n

o

t

.

know

–

–

which

.

w

a

s

.

worse . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

the

urge . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

the

blur . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

the

blister . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

o

r

–

–

–

the

burn . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

f

o

r

–

–

–

I

.

yearned

.

f

o

r

.

you . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

I

.

yearned . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

I

.

yearned . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

I

.

yearned . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

b

u

t

–

–

–

now,

.

i

t

.

seems

–

–

such

.

a

.

curse . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ it

seems

–

–

such

.

a

.

curse . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

f

o

r

–

–

–

now,

.

I

.

know

.

y

o

u

.

were

.

t

h

e

.

first . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ yes,

now

.

.

I

.

know . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

that

.

y

o

u

.

were

.

t

h

e

.

first . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

b

u

t

–

–

–

I

.

could

.

n

o

t

.

form

.

t

h

e

.

words . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ no,

.

I

.

could

.

n

o

t

.

form

.

t

h

e

.

words . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

because

.

I

.

h

a

d

.

not

learned . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

could

.

n

o

t

.

discern

.

t

h

e

.

true

magic,

–

–

measure,

–

–

meaning,

.

a

n

d

.

worth . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

until

.

t

h

e

.

pages

–

–

passed

.

a

n

d

.

purged . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ until

.

t

h

e

.

pages

–

–

passed

.

a

n

d

.

purged . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ until

.

t

h

e

.

pages

–

–

passed

.

a

n

d

.

purged . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

the

years

–

–

just

burned

.

a

n

d

.

blurred . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ the

years

–

–

just

burned

.

a

n

d

.

blurred . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

along

.

w

i

t

h

.

that

urge . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ along

.

w

i

t

h

.

that

urge . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

that

whisper

.

l

e

f

t

.

unheard.

Reflection: This was a popular romantic-themed poem that I wrote back in April of 2020 as a reflection on missed romantic opportunities. I had so many of those earlier in my life and they would taunt and haunt me. I would always beat myself up about them – telling myself that I should have said something, or that I should have done something but didn’t. It took a while for me to overcome my shyness in that respect.

I played the song “I’m Not in Love” by 10cc repeatedly at low volume in the background to create the “moodset” for the poem. If you listen to the song at low volume while reading this poem, you might better get the “feel” of it.

☆°▪︎ A MOMENT MOVED ▪︎°☆

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

There

once

.

w

a

s

.

a

moment,

–

–

when

.

t

h

e

.

music

.

o

f

.

youth . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

danced

.

w

i

t

h

.

two

.

i

n

.

tune . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ when

.

t

h

e

.

mad,

–

–

martini

moon

–

–

came

.

i

n

t

o

.

bloom . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

i

n

–

–

–

the

rush

.

o

f

.

the

raving

roar

.

o

f

.

that

flickering,

–

–

spinning

room . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

when

anything

.

t

o

o

.

good

.

t

o

.

be

true,

–

–

happened

.

t

o

o

.

soon . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

almost

knew

–

–

just

what

.

t

o

.

do . . .

.

.

.

–

–

–

 ~ it

almost

knew,

–

–

just

what

.

t

o

.

do . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

b

u

t

–

–

–

the

moment

moved . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ yes,

.

t

h

e

.

moment

moved . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

w

i

t

h

–

–

–

the

magic

.

o

f

.

the

mood . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

There

once

.

w

a

s

.

a

moment . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

b

u

t

–

–

–

then

.

i

t

.

was

gone . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ gone

with

.

t

h

e

.

summer

song . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ gone

with

.

t

h

e

.

dreaming

dawn . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ gone

with

.

t

h

e

.

awkward

rights

.

a

n

d

.

wrongs . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

all

night

long . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

on,

.

.

a

n

d

.

.

on,

.

.

a

n

d

.

.

on,

.

.

a

n

d

.

.

on . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

There

once

.

w

a

s

.

a

moment . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

There

once

.

w

a

s

.

a

moment . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

There

once

.

w

a

s

.

a

moment . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

t

h

a

t

–

–

–

moved

.

w

i

t

h

.

the

magic

.

o

f

.

the

mood . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

It

moved . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

It

moved . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

It

moved . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

w

i

t

h

–

–

–

the

magic

.

o

f

.

the

mood . . .

.

.

.

–

–

–

a

n

d

–

–

–

I

almost

knew . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ yes,

I

.

.

almost

knew . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

just

what

.

t

o

.

do.

Reflection: This was a romantic-themed poem I wrote back in April of 2020 where the contemplator looks back on the short-lived magic of young but awkward romances experienced in the days of youth – and ponders whether anything as wondrous might ever be experienced again. I played the excellent song “Strange Magic” by E.L.O. in the background to create the “moodset” for the poem. If you listen to the song at low volume while reading this poem, you might better get the “feel” of it.

☆°▪︎ THIS COVID-19 ▪︎°☆

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

All

across

.

t

h

e

.

land

.

o

f

.

the

free . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ all

across

.

t

h

e

.

land

.

o

f

.

the

self-serving . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

there

.

w

a

s

.

a

certainty . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ there

.

w

a

s

.

a

certainty . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

t

h

a

t

–

–

–

there

–

–

would

be

.

n

o

.

need

.

f

o

r

.

worry . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ no

need

.

f

o

r

.

worry

.

i

n

.

the

land

.

o

f

.

the

free . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

i

n

–

–

–

the

land

.

o

f

.

the

self-serving . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

f

o

r

–

–

–

it

would

.

b

e

.

gone

.

b

y

.

spring . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ yes,

.

i

t

.

would

.

b

e

.

gone

.

b

y

.

spring . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

such

words

.

f

e

l

l

.

so

sweetly,

–

–

upon

.

t

h

e

.

armies

discreetly

–

–

never

seen . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

marching

.

t

h

e

.

disease

.

f

r

o

m

.

across

.

t

h

e

.

seas . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

city,

.

b

y

.

city,

.

b

y

.

city . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

street,

.

b

y

.

street,

.

b

y

.

street . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ this

Covid-19 . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

now . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ yes,

now . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

with

.

s

o

.

many

suffering,

.

a

n

d

.

crying,

.

a

n

d

.

dying . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

what

does

.

i

t

.

mean?

–

–

–

.

.

.

what

does

.

i

t

.

really

mean?

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ this

Covid-19 . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

f

o

r

–

–

–

each,

.

a

n

d

.

all,

.

a

n

d

.

every

member

.

o

f

.

those

–

–

select

societies

.

o

f

.

bickering

teams

.

a

n

d

.

self-serving

deceit . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

.

complacency . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

conceit . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

refusing

.

t

o

.

believe,

.

a

n

d

.

taking

.

t

o

.

the

streets . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

screaming:

“It’s my economy!”

“So set me free!”

–

–

–

.

.

.

“It’s my economy!”

“So give me liberty!”

–

–

–

.

.

.

because

.

i

f

.

you

don’t . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ yes,

.

i

f

.

you

don’t . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

I

will

still

.

d

o

.

as

I

please!

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ I

will

still

.

d

o

.

as

I

please!

–

–

–

.

.

.

f

o

r

–

–

–

I

will

still

.

b

e

.

having

.

m

y

.

parties!

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

I

will

still

.

b

e

.

engaging

.

i

n

.

my

social

activities!

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

I

will

still

.

b

e

.

freely

drinking

.

a

n

d

.

dancing

.

i

n

.

the

streets!

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

there’s

nothing . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ no,

there’s

nothing

–

–

which

.

c

a

n

.

stop

me!

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ no,

nothing

–

–

which

.

c

a

n

.

stop

me!

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ not

even

.

y

o

u

r

.

decrees!

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ not

even

.

y

o

u

r

.

Covid-19!

–

–

–

.

.

.

s

o

–

–

–

the

cold

.

a

n

d

.

the

cruel,

–

–

defiant

–

–

absurdities

–

–

refused

.

t

o

.

take

heed,

–

–

even

though

minds

–

–

could

clearly

think . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

a

n

d

–

–

–

even

though

eyes

–

–

could

plainly

see

.

t

h

a

t

.

each

.

a

n

d

.

every

liberty

–

–

could

plant

.

t

h

a

t

.

seed . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ could

plant

.

t

h

a

t

.

deadly

seed

.

o

f

.

doom,

.

a

n

d

.

disease,

.

a

n

d

.

dread,

.

a

n

d

.

defeat . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

day,

–

–

after

day,

–

–

after

day,

–

–

after

day . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

week,

–

–

after

week,

–

–

after

week,

–

–

after

week . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

beat,

–

–

after

beat,

–

–

after

beat,

–

–

after

beat . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ this

Covid-19 . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

So,

what

will

.

t

h

e

.

final

reading

be

.

o

n

.

each

.

o

f

.

these

obscenities?

–

–

–

.

.

.

What

will

.

t

h

e

.

final

reading

.

b

e

.

when

.

t

h

e

y

.

become

.

o

u

r

.

history?

–

–

–

.

.

.

What

will

.

b

e

.

the

final

read?

–

–

–

.

.

.

What

will

.

b

e

.

the

final

read?

–

–

–

.

.

.

What

will

.

b

e

.

the

final

read?

–

–

–

.

.

.

Will

.

i

t

.

be

–

–

one

.

o

f

.

cruelty?

–

–

–

.

.

.

Will

.

i

t

.

be

–

–

one

.

o

f

.

murder?

–

–

–

.

.

.

Will

.

i

t

.

be

–

–

one

.

o

f

.

atrocity,

.

d

o

.

you

think?

–

–

–

.

.

.

defeat,

–

–

after

each

.

a

n

d

.

every

–

–

crushing

defeat . . .

–

–

–

.

.

.

 ~ this

Covid-19.

Reflection: This was a reflective-themed poem that I wrote back in April of 2020 when witnessing the beginnings of the Covid-19 pandemic unfold. I played the song “We Work the Black Seam” by Sting repeatedly at low volume in the background to create the “moodset” for the poem. If you listen to the song at low volume while reading this poem, you might better get the “feel” of it.

HAPPINESS AND SUCCESS TIP: EMPLOY CRITICAL THINKING BEFORE REACTING AND COMMUNICATING

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.


Let’s talk about a key element missing in today’s social media based communications: Critical Thinking. I think it’s a foregone conclusion that the news media is biased and shapes stories based on selective information and indicators which offer the most compelling presentations possible. Because that’s what captures audience attention and is the primary metric of success for the news media. So, it’s always a worthwhile exercise to ponder what information is being conveniently left out and what information might cause you to draw the opposite conclusion or no conclusion at all. And performing an objective analysis and evaluation of issues in order to form judgments BEFORE COMMUNICATING is the actual definition of critical thinking.

So, it boggles my mind when I see people getting excited about and having heated emotional discourses on information (or misinformation for that matter) based on news media sources or even worse – based on frivolous non-sources like social media posts and such. It’s such a waste of time and energy for everyone involved.

So, do everyone a favor (including yourself) by being open to ideas and employing the basic concepts of critical thinking BEFORE REACTING OR COMMUNICATING and supporting your ideas with good sources and your credentials where appropriate. If you do, your communications will offer something of value and you will be valued as a source instead of as a crazed hysteric throwing random hissy fits (even though the latter might be a bit more entertaining). So, please keep this in mind.

And, lastly, always remember: just because you believe something doesn’t make it true.

This and other happiness tips and topics are provided throughout my self-help, happiness, and investment oriented books: https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/


#selfimprovement #selfhelp #selfdevelopment #intention #fulfillment #success #inspiration #happiness #peace #mindfulness

THE ANSWER TO THE MOST COMMON INVESTING QUESTION IS ALWAYS THE SAME

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

The most common investing question is: “which way will the stock market go from here?” And, the answer to that question is always the same: “Who knows?” Let’s consider potential answers to this question over the coming weeks.

If investors ignore stock market fundamentals associated with poor earnings reports and economic data over the next several weeks, and instead focus on Covid-19 progress and the eventual economic recovery which is being facilitated by fiscal and monetary stimuli, then the stock market will go up.

If investors do the opposite and focus on the length and shallowness of the potential economic recovery and how expensive the overall stock market is in consideration of these factors, then the stock market will go down.

You can rest assured that no one truly knows what will happen. But, either way things go, I have a plan. Because there is opportunity no matter what happens. And a flexibility of approach can lead to steady and consistent gains over time. Simply have a plan no matter which way things might go and react to whatever happens however it happens. If you do this, you will earn steady and consistent gains over time.

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-a…/).

Make it your goal to learn these investment techniques so that you can progress towards achieving the financial freedom and independence you’ve always dreamed of.

#stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

POSITION YOURSELF FOR WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN BUT BE FLEXIBLE WITH YOUR PLANS

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

The word “know” in its various forms is perhaps one of the most misused words in the English dictionary. A lot of people, when looking back in hindsight, will claim something like: “I knew this (or that) would happen.” Well, no. You didn’t. If you did, you would have positioned yourself to benefit immensely from what happened instead of just saying, now, that you knew it would happen. A more accurate claim would be something like: “I was thinking this might happen.”

If you make these kinds of distinctions now, it can benefit you in the future because you will position yourself based on what might happen, without being overconfident in your abilities to predict, understanding there’s a possibility you might be wrong and that you might need to change your position.

For example, in the stock market, I position myself based on what I think might happen, but am flexible enough to react to what actually does. Because, there is opportunity no matter which way things go – up or down. And those who are quick to capitalize, without the rigidity of being “married” to an original theory, will benefit more than those who do not. So, always keep this in mind.

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/).

Make it your goal to learn these investment techniques so that you can progress towards achieving the financial freedom and independence you’ve always dreamed of.

#stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

A WINNING STRATEGY FOR DIVIDEND STOCKS

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

Lately, I have focused on buying stocks that pay good, sustainable dividends. Some of you might be wondering what indicator I might use to determine when to potentially sell some of my shares. Well, one thing I like to do is look at the projected annual dividend and multiply that by 5 years. So, if the price average (i.e. the cost basis) of a stock is $20 a share and pays a projected annual dividend of $1.00 per share, then once the stock price hits $25 per share [$20 + ($1.00 x 5)], I will look more closely at it to see whether significant further price appreciation is anticipated or not. If so, I’ll continue holding it for a little while. If not I’ll go ahead and start selling.

I base the above hold/sell determination not only on the individual stocks themselves but also on the overall stock market since most individual stocks move with the major stock market indices. So, if significant price appreciation is anticipated for the major stock market indices, I’ll be inclined to hold. Otherwise, I’ll be inclined to sell.

So, if the example scenario above happens quickly, then I would have a 25% gain to cash out on which I could apply to new opportunities. If the targeted price appreciation doesn’t happen until the end of the 5 year period then I could cash at that time with a 50% gain (the 25% in price appreciation + the 25% collected in dividends over that 5 year time frame). So, this might be a good approach to consider using for your investments as well.

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/).

Make it your goal to learn these investment techniques so that you can progress towards achieving the financial freedom and independence you’ve always dreamed of.

#stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

STRATEGIES FOR LOSS MITIGATION AND BUYING INTO STOCK MARKET DOWNTURNS

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

There is opportunity no matter what happens in the stock market. In a previous post, I talked about how taking too much risk in the stock market at the wrong time can shred your life savings. If you experienced downturns in the past, you probably learned this painful but valuable lesson several years ago. I learned this valuable lesson during the dot com bubble 20 years ago. Also, in a previous post, I shared the eye-opening fact that if the stock market drops 50%, then it has to gain 100% just to break even. I am now going to show how you can take advantage by buying into a falling market like this.

Consider the following set of loss/gain percentage pairs. If from peak to trough the stock market (or individual stocks for that matter):

  • loses 20%, then, if you are fully invested at the time, you will gain 25% at the break even point (not including dividends)
  • loses 25%, then, if you are fully invested at the time, you will gain 33% at the break even point (not including dividends)
  • loses 33%, then, if you are fully invested at the time, you will gain 50% at the break even point (not including dividends). This is about where the stock market is right now.
  • loses 50%, then, if you are fully invested at the time, you will gain 100% at the break even point (not including dividends)
  • loses 75%, then, if you are fully invested at the time, you will gain 300% at the break even point (not including dividends)

Most of the time it takes just a few years for the stock market to recover to its previous high. So, it helps to not only have a loss mitigation strategy in your stock market investing toolbox but also a strategy for buying into stock market downturns.

No one knows where the bottom will be in this current downturn, but I just continue buying into the market as new lows are experienced. I am currently about 35% invested and plan to grow that over time. Now, although I learned a valuable lesson during the 2000-2002 dot com bubble which helped a lot during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the additional lesson I learned from the financial crisis which I plan to apply to this downturn is resisting the urge to sell too early. This time I plan to buy into the stock market and hold it for a lengthy period of time. To be a successful investor you have to evolve and adjust your approaches over time. Because, no matter what happens, there are lessons to be learned and ways to improve performance.

Now, if you were getting fairly close to reaching your financial goals, prior to this current downtown, and found you’ve been taking too much risk, well, learn these valuable lessons now and make adjustments for the future and it will help you tremendously. If you are a long distance from reaching your financial goals or are a new or future investor then learn these lessons for the years to come and remember to reduce your risk as you begin approaching your financial goals and then buy into downturns so you can capitalize on them. Remember, there is opportunity no matter what happens in the stock market.

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/).

Make it your goal to learn these investment techniques so that you can progress towards achieving the financial freedom and independence you’ve always dreamed of.

#stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

A DISCIPLINED APPROACH FOR INVESTING IN A FALLING MARKET

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

There is opportunity no matter what happens in the stock market. One of the worst things you can be as an investor is an emotional investor. So, try to get your emotions out of it and execute with a sense of discipline.   Fortunately for me, I’m still strongly in positive territory for 2020 which is not bad given that the overall stock market has taken quite a tumble.

Over the past year I’ve been employing my stock market correction strategy which involves shorting the overall stock market and selling periodic gains and repeating this (I used the UVXY to short the market).  

At the beginning of March, I switched things up and started using my bear market strategy which involves buying into the stock market a little at a time, selling significant rallies, and then continuing to buy into the stock market until it appears to go through a bottoming process. I first developed this strategy after the 2000-2002 dot com bubble. I lost a lot of money then (as most people did).   My first use of this strategy was during the 2007-2009 financial crisis and I did much better than I did during the dot com bubble. Since then I have refined it a bit more. We’ll see how well it works this time. Hopefully, the refinements will allow me to do even better this time than I did during the financial crisis.

To be a successful investor you have to evolve and adjust your approaches over time. Because, no matter what happens, there are lessons to be learned and ways to improve performance.   The reason I developed this bear market strategy is because once the overall stock market loses a significant percentage of its value, it takes a much larger gain to break even. Consider the following set of loss/gain percentage pairs. If from peak to trough the stock market (or individual stocks for that matter):  

  • loses 20%, then it has to gain 25% to break even
  • loses 25%, then it has to gain 33.3% to break even
  • loses 33%, then it has to gain 50% to break even
  • loses 50%, then it has to gain 100% to break even
  • loses 75%, then it has to gain 300% to break even

So, it helps to have a loss mitigation strategy in your stock market investing toolbox.   Another disciplined approach I’ve used as a loss mitigation strategy involves the following:  

  •  Case #1: If a majority of my investment account is invested in the stock market, I ask myself, based on where the overall stock market is right now (e.g., the S&P 500 Index is what I frequently use), what is the probability of the next 10%+ move in the stock market being down? If I assign a 15% probability of this happening (which means I think there’s an 85% probability of the stock market going up by this much), then I adjust my investment account such that 15% of it is in cash (or other low risk alternatives).
  • Case #2: If a majority of my investment account has been cashed out, I ask myself the opposite: based on where the overall stock market is right now (e.g., the S&P 500 Index), what is the probability of the next 10%+ move in the stock market being up? If I assign a 20% probability of this happening (which means I think there’s an 80% probability of the stock market going down by this much), then I adjust my investment account such that 20% is invested (and 80% remains in cash or other low risk alternatives). I invest in individual stocks, index funds, and other stock alternatives at times. Index funds tend to move with the market indexes they track while individual stocks tend to exaggerate the moves higher or lower by the market indexes.
  • Case #3: If my investment account is only 50% invested in the stock market, then I ask myself: based on where the overall stock market is right now (e.g., the S&P 500 Index), is it more likely for the next 10%+ move in the stock market to be up (Case #2 above) or down (Case #1 above)? I then assign a probability and make adjustments to my investment account accordingly as shown above.

 It’s not easy assigning probabilities (and being right), so many people might be tempted to just stay put. However, you should at least be mindful of the appropriate risk you should be taking given where you are today. If you are a long way from reaching your financial goal, then a majority of your investment account should be invested in the stock market for much of the time (Case #1 above). If you are close to reaching your financial goal, then a majority of your investment account should be cashed out or invested in low risk alternatives for much of the time (Case #2 above).  

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/).

Make it your goal to learn these investment techniques so that you can progress towards achieving the financial freedom and independence you’ve always dreamed of.

#stocks #investing #stockmarket #success

A DISCIPLINED APPROACH TO INVESTING USING PERCENTAGES AND PROBABILITIES

Posted on by Joseph M. Brennan Jr.

I wanted to offer something which might be helpful to some of you because a lot of people are freaking out about the stock market right now. But there is opportunity no matter what happens in the stock market. One of the worst things you can be as an investor is an emotional investor. So, try to get your emotions out of it and execute with a sense of discipline. Here’s a disciplined investing approach you can try which I’ve used which might be helpful:

  • Case #1: If a majority of your investment account is invested in the stock market, ask yourself, based on where the overall stock market is right now (e.g., the S&P 500 Index is what I frequently use), what is the probability of the next 10%+ move in the stock market being down? If you assign a 15% probability of this happening (which means you think there’s an 85% probability of the stock market going up by this much), then adjust your investment account such that 15% of it is in cash (or other low risk alternatives).
  • Case #2: If a majority of your investment account has been cashed out, ask yourself the opposite: based on where the overall stock market is right now (e.g., the S&P 500 Index), what is the probability of the next 10%+ move in the stock market being up? If you assign a 20% probability of this happening (which means you think there’s an 80% probability of the stock market going down by this much), then adjust your investment account such that 20% is invested (and 80% remains in cash or other low risk alternatives).  You can invest in individual stocks, index funds, and other stock alternatives. Index funds tend to move with the market indexes they track while individual stocks tend to exaggerate the moves higher or lower by the market indexes.  
  • Case #3: If your investment account is only 50% invested in the stock market, then ask yourself: based on where the overall stock market is right now (e.g., the S&P 500 Index), is it more likely for the next 10%+ move in the stock market to be up (Case #2 above) or down (Case #1 above)? You would then assign a probability and make adjustments to your investment account accordingly as shown above.  

It’s not easy assigning probabilities (and being right), so many people might be tempted to just stay put. However, you should at least be mindful of the appropriate risk you should be taking given where you are today. If you are a long way from reaching your  financial goal, then a majority of your investment account should be invested in the stock market for much of the time (Case #1 above). If you are close to reaching your  financial goal, then a majority of your investment account should be cashed out or invested in low risk alternatives for much of the time (Case #2 above).

You can learn about all of my investing techniques via my “Invest Like a Pro in 10 Minutes a Day!” series of 4 books where you can learn the “end to end” process to investing (https://brighterdayslifecoaching.com/published-books-and-life-coaching-services/).

Make it your goal to learn these investment techniques so that you can progress towards achieving the financial freedom and independence you’ve always dreamed of.

#stocks #investing #stockmarket #success